I think it's safe to say my bracket is completely garbage, but I would be willing to bet I'm not the only one who's suffering. You have to pick upsets when filling out your tournament bracket, and those who choose the right upsets, generally go on to do pretty well. As for me, I wasn't correct on anyone of my upset picks. At least I still have all four of my Final Four teams left in the tournament. If you're willing to listen, here's my predictions on the Sweet 16.
EAST REGION: This is the only region where each one of the top four seeds have advanced to the regional semifinals.
#4 Washington State vs. #1 North Carolina: I actually predicted this matchup in my tournament bracket. In my opinion, this has all the potential to be the Sweet 16's most exciting game. WAZZU comes in with the tourney's best defense allowing just 81 points in the first two games (52 in their last 60 minutes) while holding Notre Dame, a team who averaged 79 points a game heading into the tourney, to just 41. Meanwhile, North Carolina is playing out of its mind offensively. The Tar Heels have scored 221 points in their first two contests which ranks third most in tournament history. The key to this matchup is which style of play will perservere. I believe it's much harder for a team who's used to running up and down the floor like North Carolina to have to slow it up rather than for a team like the Cougars, who like to play a slow tempo style of game, to have to speed it up. However, the Tar Heels will have the edge in the fact that this game will be played in Charlotte, which is roughly 160 miles away from their hometown of Chapel Hill. Knowing from experience, Cougar fans love to travel, so don't expect to see the crowd painted in Carolina blue. I'm still sticking to my orginal point that Washington State needs their junior center, Aron Baynes to have a huge game in order to beat Carolina. WAZZU has the experience and depth in their backcourt to counter the Tar Heels' athleticism, but I'm not sure if the Cougs have anyone who can stop Tyler Hansbrough. Then again, who has this year?
PREDICTION: Call it a biased pick, which it is, but I'll take my alma matter to beat North Carolina in a slug fest, 72-69.
#3 Louisville vs. #2 Tennessee: This is another matchup I predicted in my Sweet 16, and I'll stick with my original gut feeling. I like Tennessee, but not as much as I like Louisville. The Cardinals' Rick Pitinio has the edge in experience over Bruce Pearl, which should help Louisville upset the Vols. As we've seen time and time again this year, Tennessee lives and dies by the 3 ball, and generally seems to dominate their opponents because their superiority in athleticism. However, they'll meet their match Thursday night when they take on Louisville who had four players this year who all averaged in double figures. The Cardinals have yet to be tested in this tournament, as they've beaten the first two teams they've faced by a combined margin of 48 points, which means, their confidence is at an all time high.
PREDICTION: I think this game will be close for the first 30-35 minutes before Louisville pulls away down the stretch. This is a team who likes to play defense, holding their opponents to 60 points or less in 18 of their games thus far this season, which will ultimately be the difference. The Cardinals are moving on to the Elite 8, 72-63.
MIDWEST REGION: Upsets seemed to be the theme in this region, as 4 of the 8 higher seeds moved on to the second round, and two remain including everybody's Cinderella favorite, Davidson.
#12 Villanova vs. #1 Kansas: I'll admit that I had NOVA out after the first round, but the Wildcats surprised me, coming back from an 18 point deficit to defeat 5th seeded Clemson before easily taking care of Siena en route to their first Sweet 16 appearance in 2 years. Now they get to face Kansas, who is perhaps the most talented team they've had to face all year long. If the Wildcats get down early, they won't be able to come back against the Jayhawks like they did against the Tigers. However, Kansas is a team who likes to jump out early on their opponents considering all five of their starters have the talent to play at the next level.
PREDICTION: The Big East will be down one less team after Kansas outplays the Wildcats in another solid performance, 72-57.
#10 Davidson vs. #3 Wisconsin: The Davidson Wildcats are the feel good story of the 2008 NCAA tournament. Everybody seems to be falling in love with their sophomore guard, Stephen Curry. And why not? This kid is incredible. He's scored 70 points in their two tournament games this year, which almost equals the total number of points that Washington State has allowed as a team (81). Curry seems to be able to score from anywhere on the court. He can shoot it all along the arc, and somehow finds creases amongst the defense that no other player seems to find. That being said, Davidson is going up against one of the best defenses they've seen this season. The Badgers pride themselves on the defensive side of the ball, and you better believe they know which number Curry is wearing, which is 30 if anyone cares. I just can't see Stephen Curry carrying this team game in and game out. Sometime, this kid will have to break, and when he does, so will Davidson.
PREDICTION: Curry plays great, scoring 25 points, but the rest of his team adds just 30 as Wisconsin has a date with Kansas in the Elite 8, 68-55.
SOUTH REGION: Three of the top four seeds remain in the South Region, which is headed to Houston, Texas. The number two seed in the region just so happens to be the University of Texas.
#5 Michigan State vs. #1 Memphis: Michigan State has turned into the dark horse of the tournament beating Pitt who many had in their Sweet 16. The Spartans return all five of their starters from last season who lost in the second round of the tournament, which means this could be the most experienced squad in the Big Dance. They also have Tom Izzo as their head coach who knows a little bit about winning considering he's led Michigan State to the Final Four, four times in the past nine years including a national championship in 2000. Izzo and the Spartans get Memphis in the Sweet 16, who in my opinion, is least likely out of all the number one seeds to reach the Final Four. The Tigers have an explosive and very talented cast of players, but they can't make a free throw to save their lives. They made 15 of their 32 attempts against Mississippi State in the second round, and almost gave that game away. If they shoot just as poorly at the line against the Spartans, they will give the game away.
PREDICTION: Tom Izzo has his Spartans playing too well for Jim Calipari and his Memphis Tigers. It should be a great game with a great finish, but the Spartans pull away late since they can shoot free throws. Michigan State wins, 76-71.
#3 Stanford vs. #2 Texas: This is a very intriguing matchup because both teams come in with two different styles of play. Stanford loves to go down low to one of the Lopez twins who are giants inside. Both Brook and Robin Lopez are listed as 7-3 on the roster. Meanwhile, Texas has two outstanding guards in D. J. Augustin and A. J. Abrams. This game should settle the debate as to which is more vital: a power post game, or a solid backcourt.
PREDICTION: While I thought neither team looked unstoppable in their second round matchups, I'll stick with my original pick, Texas wins in a defensive battle, 62-60.
WEST REGION: This region has caused the most havoc on our brackets, with just two of the top three seeds remaining. However, UCLA still has an easy road to the Final Four, as long as they aren't the next victim of an upset.
#12 Western Kentucky vs. #1 UCLA: There's no telling where the Bruins would be right now without benefiting from conterversial officiating. UCLA blocked 11 shot attempts, while committing just 16 fouls in their second round matchup against Texas A&M, but if you look closely, there was a lot of contact involved. Either way, the Bruins are headed back to the Sweet 16 where they'll meet another fortunate squad in Western Kentucky who's still thanking Ty Rogers who hit that incredible 3 point shot from NBA range to defeat Drake at the buzzer. So far, that has to be the most memorable moment of the tournament. While the Bruins pride themselves on defense first, nearly any one of their players can score which makes them so lethal. On the flip side, Western Kentucky has one of the most impressive offenses amongst any one of the Sweet 16 teams. The Hilltoppers scored 183 points combined in their road to the regional semis.
PREDICTION: As they say, defense wins you championships, and I can't disagree in this matchup. While I love Western Kentucky's inspiration, I believe UCLA is just too good, and if they continue to receive beneficial calls, there's no way this team will be beat. After another sluggish start, the Bruins prove to be too much, 70-58.
#7 West Virginia vs. #3 Xavier: It's tough to pick against the Mountaineers right now who are playing their best basketball of the season. Coming off impressive back to back wins against Arizona and Duke, they could present a very scary matchup for UCLA in the Elite 8. However, they can't overlook Xavier who stands in their way. The Muskateers are built around their offense, who hung 50 second half points against a Purdue team who allowed just 61 a game heading into the contest.
PREDICTION: West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins is very good at exploiting his opponent's weaknesses. The Mountaineers outrebounded a guard-heavy Duke team, 45-19. He'll do it again to Xavier, 78-71.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Bracket Buster (Part III)
SOUTH REGION: This is easily the third, if not second toughest region in the tournament. With Memphis, Texas, Stanford and Pittsburgh making up the top four seeds, anyone has a chance to take the road to the Final Four.
Memphis (33-1): Their only blemish this year was against Tennessee, however, that was easily their toughest opponent of the season. The Conference USA was extremely weak this year, which was proven by the fact that Memphis was the only team to receive a tournament bid. To compensate for that, the Tigers did scheduled a rather impressive nonconference schedule which includes wins against Georgetown, UCONN, Arizona, Oklahoma, USC and Gonzaga. Don't let the fact that they played in a weak conference fool you. They are a very good team coached by a very good coach in Jim Calipari. Their biggest weakness is their free throw shooting which was a dismal, 59.6 %. My only concern for Memphis is their ability to close out close games.
Texas (28-6): Many have Texas in their Final Four, and it's hard to disagree. They have an incredible resume that includes beating 2 of the 4 number one seeds. Guards D. J. Augustin and A. J. Abrams might make up the best backcourt in the country, while forward Damion James can be a force inside. The Longhorns should easily march into the Sweet 16 where they'll most likely have a very tough matchup against Stanford, who's style of play is much different.
Stanford (26-7): This is the second best team from the Pac-10, who was the best conference in the country this year. The Lopez twins are unstoppable and should carry them into the Sweet 16. Stanford's biggest weakness is their guard play. Anthony Goods is their only wing who averaged in double figures this season. If junior guard Mitch Johnson steps up, they have the talent to knock out Texas in the regional semifinals.
Pittsburgh (26-9): There may not be a hotter team entering the tournament right now than Pitt. The Panthers swept through the Big East tourney by taking out Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown along the way. Their biggest issue this year has been dealing with injuries. While they recently go Levance Fields back, Guard Mike Cook is still out for the rest of the year. If they can ride their current momentum into the tournament, they could become a major threat in the East Region and possibly be a Final Four representative.
Michigan State (25-8): The Spartans are a team loaded with experience returning all five of their starters from last year who lost to North Carolina in the second round. However, coming from a disappointing Big Ten conference this year, they may not be in shape to handle the talent in the Big Dance. While I don't believe they'll struggle with Temple in the first round, I don't see them getting past Pittsburgh in the second. Keep your eye on guard, Drew Neitzel. He can shoot it from anywhere.
Marquette (24-9): In my opinion, the Golden Eagles lucked out with this bid. Not only do I believe it's too high, but they also get to face a very overrated Kentucky team in the first round. Marquette has a talented backcourt with Jerel McNeal, Dominic James and Wesley Matthews who all average in double figures. In order to go deep into the tourney, you have to have strong guard play, which the Golden Eagles possess. However, their lack of a post game will hurt them when they face Stanford and the Lopez twins.
Miami, FL (22-10): This was the fourth and final seed from the ACC, and given their record and the strength of tradition of their conference, the Hurricanes are in the Big Dance this year. But don't expect them to last. They begin the tournament facing a very talented St. Mary's team who is a very solid pick if you're looking for an upset. Miami is led by their junior guard, Jack McClinton, who averaged 17 points a game this year. However, due to their lack of depth, the Hurricanes could very easily be an early exit.
Mississippi State (22-10): Another SEC team that should struggle in the tournament. I do like the play of their versatile sophomore, Jarvis Varnado, who can play either guard or forward, and proved to have great reach, blocking 4.6 shots per game this year. Don't miss sophomore guard, Ben Hansbrough, the younger brother of UNC's All-American, Tyler, who has a much better shot than his brother. He shot over 40 % from the floor and nearly 36 % from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs aren't a bad pick to escape the first round, but they don't have the talent to defeat Memphis in the second.
Oregon (18-13): Don't let their record fool you. The Ducks can shoot lights out from the perimeter. Like Tennessee, they live and die from the 3 point line. Tajuan Porter will be one of the most exciting players to watch. He's 5-6, but can make some of the most amazing shots you'll ever see. Senior Maarty Leunen also presents a very tough matchup. Standing at 6-9, he can be a great presence inside, but can also shoot the 3 as well as anyone at times. If Oregon catches fire, they will be no easy test for any opponent.
St. Mary's (25-6): While their early season upset win over Oregon doesn't look as impressive as it did before, this is a very athletic team who loves to run and gun. In 31 games this season, they scored at least 80 points or more in 11 of them. Their quality wins include Drake and Gonzaga. If you're looking for a first round upset pick in the South Region, St. Mary's would be a good choice facing Miami in a matchup of 7 vs. 10.
Kentucky (18-12): In my opinion, Kentucky is in the tournament only because of their storied tradition. However, this year, after losing to Gardner-Webb, UAB, Conference USA's Houston and Vanderbilt by 41, they're lucky to even be in the tournament. This is a team who's still in a rebuilding stage. Be sure to watch their SEC freshman of the year, Patrick Patterson, who averaged 16.4 points a game this season and promises to be one of the nation's best in years to come. But if you miss their first round game against Marquette, you'll probably have to wait until next year to see them again.
Temple (21-12): The Owls are back in the tournament for the first time since 2001 after winning the Atlantic 10 conference championship. They have an incredible tandem in guards Mark Tyndale and Dionte Christmas, who averaged over 20 points a game this year. Temple is playing their best basketball of the season as they're currently riding a 7 game winning streak, which could make their matchup against Tom Izzo and Michigan State very interesting. I think the Owls can play with the Spartans for the first 30 minutes, but after that, they'll feel the void of not having a strong post presence.
Oral Roberts (24-8): You have to feel for this Golden Eagle club who will have to face one of the hottest teams in the country, Pitt, in the first round of the tournament. Oral Roberts will rely on their defense, who was the strength of their team this year. In fact, they were 16-0 when they held their opponents to 60 points or less. Either way, no matter how good their defense is against Pitt, they won't be able to keep up with the Panthers' talent, which equals a first round exit for the Golden Eagles.
Cornell (22-5): This is an interesting first round match with the Ivy League conference champs squaring off against Stanford. You can believe the GPA between the two teams will be the highest of any first round matchup. However, a high team GPA doesn't necessarily equal wins. The Big Red's lone quality win this year was Siena, which means they really haven't beaten any team with the talent that would match Stanford. While it was a nice run for Cornell this year, it will end in the first round.
Austin Peay (24-10): The Governors earned themselves an automatic bid into the tourney by winning their Ohio Valley Conference championship. Without that, they wouldn't be here. Without a quality win on their resume, I have every reason to believe that their first round game against Texas could be ugly.
Texas Arlington (21-11): The Mavericks are the fourth best team from Texas in the tournament this year, which isn't saying much since there are only four teams from the Lone Star state. While the Mavs may have the best chance of the four 16 seeds to move on this year, I wouldn't bank on it.
WEST REGION: This is the least talented region of the four this year. Expect to see UCLA dominate the West and punch their ticket into the Final Four.
UCLA (31-3): In my opinion, this is the best in the country. Their depth is unbelievable. Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook make up a very solid backcourt, while freshman sensation, Kevin Love has lived up to every bit of his hype. But what makes the Bruins so tough is their style of play. They pride themselves on defense, yet almost everyone of their players can score from nearly anywhere on the floor. Any team that can finish the year 18-2 against Pac-10 competition is sensational. While they did receive several favorable calls towards the end of the season, this is still a team very worthy of their rank. Due to the fact that their region is also the easiest of the four, I expect to see the Bruins walk into the Final Four without much of a fight.
Duke (25-8): This is the weakest number 2 seed of the four this year. The Blue Devils got off to a hot stretch in which they began the year, 20-1 before ending the season on a disappointing 5-4 stretch. That being said, I believe Duke has an easy draw through the Sweet 16. I like their experience with Greg Paulus and DeMarcus Nelson, while they have several great freshman perimeter shooters with Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer. I could see Duke moving on to the Elite 8 before getting blown out by UCLA.
Xavier (27-6): Like Duke, this is the weakest third seed in the tournament. While the Muskateers have been a very familiar face in the NCAA tournament in the past decade, making their seventh trip in the past 8 years, it's hard for me to accept that an Atlantic 10 team is deserving of a third seed considering they didn't even win their conference tournament. This is still a very balanced team with six players all averaging in double figures in scoring this year. While Georgia should be a fairly easy first round test for Xavier, it's tough to count out the Bulldogs who put together an unbelievable stretch to win the SEC. I like Xavier to win, but I think it will be a much closer game than most might expect.
Connecticut (24-8): This was supposed to be another rebuilding year for the Huskies, but give credit to their head coach, Jim Calhoun, who has done an incredible job in leading UCONN to a four seed this season. Another team with a balanced attack that includes five players who average at least 10.4 points a game. This should be UCLA's toughest test en route to the Elite 8.
Drake (28-4): The Bulldogs are somewhat of a mystery this year. After losing four starters and their two top scorers from last season, Drake was picked to finish 9th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Instead, the Bulldogs nearly ran the table finishing 15-3 in conference play en route to winning a conference championship and earning their first NCAA bid since 1971. If they can get past a stingy Western Kentucky team in the first round, we could be looking at an incredible second round matchup against UCONN.
Purdue (24-8): At one time, the Boilermakers were the team to beat in the Big Ten, ripping off 11 straight in the middle of the season before dropping three of their last six to finish the year. Like most Big Ten teams, Purdue is built upon their defense, which presents an interesting first round matchup against Baylor who is much more offensively minded. This might be the toughest pick in the first round. It will come down to which team's strength can outmatch the other.
West Virginia (24-10): The Mountaineers earned an at-large bid thanks to their first year head coach, Bob Huggins, who simply knows how to win. This is a tested club coming from the Big East who could surprise some teams in the tournament this year. Their first round matchup against Arizona should be an excellent battle between the Big East and Pac-10. If they can get past the Wildcats, it will be fun to see them face off against Duke.
BYU (27-7): The Cougars would have been a higher seed had they not fallen to UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship. This is a team who ended the year on a 15-2 run. BYU has a great inside-outside tandem in guard Lee Cummard and post Trent Plaisted who both averaged over 15 and a half points per game this season. However, the Cougs have drawn a very competitive match in the first round with Texas A&M who could give BYU trouble with their strong post presence.
Texas A&M (24-10): This is a very confusing Aggies club considering they began the year, 15-1, but finished by losing 6 of their last 10. A&M brings a very balanced attack with solid post play underneath, however, they don't have a consistent scorer, which could pose a problem for the Aggies in a tight game. Their first round test against BYU will be tough, and could come down to a last second shot, which doesn't look good for Texas A&M. If they can find consistency on the offensive end, they should move on to the second round for a grueling test against UCLA.
Arizona (19-14): Many skeptics believe that Arizona doesn't belong in the Big Dance this year, and they may be right. However, I disagree. The Wildcats are a very young team, but when they show signs of maturity, can be very explosive. Sophomore Chase Budinger is a 6-7 forward who can shoot it from anywhere on the court, and be sure to watch their freshman guard, Jerryd Bayless who can take over a game at any point. This is a very dangerous 10 seed who could pull off the upset against Duke in the second round if they learn how to mature quickly in the postseason. I at least like them over West Virginia in the opening round.
Baylor (21-10): Despite losing to Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 conference tournament, the Baylor Bears were still able to earn the final at-large bid by the tournament committee. This is a very fast-paced team who loves to run the floor. They've scored in triple digits five different times this season. However, they draw a defensive-minded Purdue team in the first round of the tourney, which should pose as an interesting matchup. One thing the Bears need to fix is their post play. Kevin Rogers is their only forward who averages in double figures, while center Josh Lomers is the second biggest threat inside for Baylor. He averaged just 3.8 points per game.
Western Kentucky (27-6): Many like the Hilltoppers as an upset special in the first round of the tournament, and who could blame them? Western Kentucky finished their season by winning 18 of their last 19 games, and nearly pulled off upsets against Gonzaga and Tennessee. The Hilltoppers are led by their senior Courtney Lee who averages over 20 points. While Drake may have more depth, this is a team who could pull off the first round upset if they can get some help from their bench.
San Diego (21-13): The Toreros come from a much improved West Coast Conference this year that is sending three teams to the Big Dance (Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego). San Diego clinched an automatic bid by defeating the Zags in the conference championship. You can't let their record fool you. This is a very strong team. After beginning the year 8-11, the Tereros went on a tear, wrapping up the season by winning 13 of their remaining 15 games. This is a team that could pull of the upset if UCONN overlooks them in the first round. However, they don't have the talent to compete against the Huskies if they come ready to play.
Georgia (17-16): It's still hard to believe that the Bulldogs are in considering a week ago, they were 13-16 while many believed were down to their final game. Give credit to Georgia as they prevailed through the SEC tournament earning the conference's automatic bid. They'll have to find that inspiration once again when they take on an overrated Xavier team. This is a club that could pull off the upset, but it's a very risky pick considering the clock always seems to strike midnight for these Cinderella teams. You just don't know when.
Belmont (25-8): The Bruins enter the tourney on a 13 game winning streak en route to their 3rd straight Atlantic Sun conference championshipship. And like their previous two trips to the Big Dance, Belmont will once again represent as a 15th seed where the Bruins hope to avoid being blown out for the third straight time. They may be able to hang with Duke for the first half, but the Blue Devils will run away with it in the second.
Mississippi Valley State (17-15): This is a team who's tale is split into two halves. The Delta Devils began the year on an 8 game losing streak, but finished the season on a nine game winning streak earning them a shot at UCLA in the first round. Unfortunately for MVSU, that streak will come to a crashing end at the hands of the Bruins in the first round of the tourney.
Don't forget to fill out your brackets! You have until 10:20 am before the opening round of the tourney begins. Best of luck to all of you!
Memphis (33-1): Their only blemish this year was against Tennessee, however, that was easily their toughest opponent of the season. The Conference USA was extremely weak this year, which was proven by the fact that Memphis was the only team to receive a tournament bid. To compensate for that, the Tigers did scheduled a rather impressive nonconference schedule which includes wins against Georgetown, UCONN, Arizona, Oklahoma, USC and Gonzaga. Don't let the fact that they played in a weak conference fool you. They are a very good team coached by a very good coach in Jim Calipari. Their biggest weakness is their free throw shooting which was a dismal, 59.6 %. My only concern for Memphis is their ability to close out close games.
Texas (28-6): Many have Texas in their Final Four, and it's hard to disagree. They have an incredible resume that includes beating 2 of the 4 number one seeds. Guards D. J. Augustin and A. J. Abrams might make up the best backcourt in the country, while forward Damion James can be a force inside. The Longhorns should easily march into the Sweet 16 where they'll most likely have a very tough matchup against Stanford, who's style of play is much different.
Stanford (26-7): This is the second best team from the Pac-10, who was the best conference in the country this year. The Lopez twins are unstoppable and should carry them into the Sweet 16. Stanford's biggest weakness is their guard play. Anthony Goods is their only wing who averaged in double figures this season. If junior guard Mitch Johnson steps up, they have the talent to knock out Texas in the regional semifinals.
Pittsburgh (26-9): There may not be a hotter team entering the tournament right now than Pitt. The Panthers swept through the Big East tourney by taking out Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown along the way. Their biggest issue this year has been dealing with injuries. While they recently go Levance Fields back, Guard Mike Cook is still out for the rest of the year. If they can ride their current momentum into the tournament, they could become a major threat in the East Region and possibly be a Final Four representative.
Michigan State (25-8): The Spartans are a team loaded with experience returning all five of their starters from last year who lost to North Carolina in the second round. However, coming from a disappointing Big Ten conference this year, they may not be in shape to handle the talent in the Big Dance. While I don't believe they'll struggle with Temple in the first round, I don't see them getting past Pittsburgh in the second. Keep your eye on guard, Drew Neitzel. He can shoot it from anywhere.
Marquette (24-9): In my opinion, the Golden Eagles lucked out with this bid. Not only do I believe it's too high, but they also get to face a very overrated Kentucky team in the first round. Marquette has a talented backcourt with Jerel McNeal, Dominic James and Wesley Matthews who all average in double figures. In order to go deep into the tourney, you have to have strong guard play, which the Golden Eagles possess. However, their lack of a post game will hurt them when they face Stanford and the Lopez twins.
Miami, FL (22-10): This was the fourth and final seed from the ACC, and given their record and the strength of tradition of their conference, the Hurricanes are in the Big Dance this year. But don't expect them to last. They begin the tournament facing a very talented St. Mary's team who is a very solid pick if you're looking for an upset. Miami is led by their junior guard, Jack McClinton, who averaged 17 points a game this year. However, due to their lack of depth, the Hurricanes could very easily be an early exit.
Mississippi State (22-10): Another SEC team that should struggle in the tournament. I do like the play of their versatile sophomore, Jarvis Varnado, who can play either guard or forward, and proved to have great reach, blocking 4.6 shots per game this year. Don't miss sophomore guard, Ben Hansbrough, the younger brother of UNC's All-American, Tyler, who has a much better shot than his brother. He shot over 40 % from the floor and nearly 36 % from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs aren't a bad pick to escape the first round, but they don't have the talent to defeat Memphis in the second.
Oregon (18-13): Don't let their record fool you. The Ducks can shoot lights out from the perimeter. Like Tennessee, they live and die from the 3 point line. Tajuan Porter will be one of the most exciting players to watch. He's 5-6, but can make some of the most amazing shots you'll ever see. Senior Maarty Leunen also presents a very tough matchup. Standing at 6-9, he can be a great presence inside, but can also shoot the 3 as well as anyone at times. If Oregon catches fire, they will be no easy test for any opponent.
St. Mary's (25-6): While their early season upset win over Oregon doesn't look as impressive as it did before, this is a very athletic team who loves to run and gun. In 31 games this season, they scored at least 80 points or more in 11 of them. Their quality wins include Drake and Gonzaga. If you're looking for a first round upset pick in the South Region, St. Mary's would be a good choice facing Miami in a matchup of 7 vs. 10.
Kentucky (18-12): In my opinion, Kentucky is in the tournament only because of their storied tradition. However, this year, after losing to Gardner-Webb, UAB, Conference USA's Houston and Vanderbilt by 41, they're lucky to even be in the tournament. This is a team who's still in a rebuilding stage. Be sure to watch their SEC freshman of the year, Patrick Patterson, who averaged 16.4 points a game this season and promises to be one of the nation's best in years to come. But if you miss their first round game against Marquette, you'll probably have to wait until next year to see them again.
Temple (21-12): The Owls are back in the tournament for the first time since 2001 after winning the Atlantic 10 conference championship. They have an incredible tandem in guards Mark Tyndale and Dionte Christmas, who averaged over 20 points a game this year. Temple is playing their best basketball of the season as they're currently riding a 7 game winning streak, which could make their matchup against Tom Izzo and Michigan State very interesting. I think the Owls can play with the Spartans for the first 30 minutes, but after that, they'll feel the void of not having a strong post presence.
Oral Roberts (24-8): You have to feel for this Golden Eagle club who will have to face one of the hottest teams in the country, Pitt, in the first round of the tournament. Oral Roberts will rely on their defense, who was the strength of their team this year. In fact, they were 16-0 when they held their opponents to 60 points or less. Either way, no matter how good their defense is against Pitt, they won't be able to keep up with the Panthers' talent, which equals a first round exit for the Golden Eagles.
Cornell (22-5): This is an interesting first round match with the Ivy League conference champs squaring off against Stanford. You can believe the GPA between the two teams will be the highest of any first round matchup. However, a high team GPA doesn't necessarily equal wins. The Big Red's lone quality win this year was Siena, which means they really haven't beaten any team with the talent that would match Stanford. While it was a nice run for Cornell this year, it will end in the first round.
Austin Peay (24-10): The Governors earned themselves an automatic bid into the tourney by winning their Ohio Valley Conference championship. Without that, they wouldn't be here. Without a quality win on their resume, I have every reason to believe that their first round game against Texas could be ugly.
Texas Arlington (21-11): The Mavericks are the fourth best team from Texas in the tournament this year, which isn't saying much since there are only four teams from the Lone Star state. While the Mavs may have the best chance of the four 16 seeds to move on this year, I wouldn't bank on it.
WEST REGION: This is the least talented region of the four this year. Expect to see UCLA dominate the West and punch their ticket into the Final Four.
UCLA (31-3): In my opinion, this is the best in the country. Their depth is unbelievable. Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook make up a very solid backcourt, while freshman sensation, Kevin Love has lived up to every bit of his hype. But what makes the Bruins so tough is their style of play. They pride themselves on defense, yet almost everyone of their players can score from nearly anywhere on the floor. Any team that can finish the year 18-2 against Pac-10 competition is sensational. While they did receive several favorable calls towards the end of the season, this is still a team very worthy of their rank. Due to the fact that their region is also the easiest of the four, I expect to see the Bruins walk into the Final Four without much of a fight.
Duke (25-8): This is the weakest number 2 seed of the four this year. The Blue Devils got off to a hot stretch in which they began the year, 20-1 before ending the season on a disappointing 5-4 stretch. That being said, I believe Duke has an easy draw through the Sweet 16. I like their experience with Greg Paulus and DeMarcus Nelson, while they have several great freshman perimeter shooters with Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer. I could see Duke moving on to the Elite 8 before getting blown out by UCLA.
Xavier (27-6): Like Duke, this is the weakest third seed in the tournament. While the Muskateers have been a very familiar face in the NCAA tournament in the past decade, making their seventh trip in the past 8 years, it's hard for me to accept that an Atlantic 10 team is deserving of a third seed considering they didn't even win their conference tournament. This is still a very balanced team with six players all averaging in double figures in scoring this year. While Georgia should be a fairly easy first round test for Xavier, it's tough to count out the Bulldogs who put together an unbelievable stretch to win the SEC. I like Xavier to win, but I think it will be a much closer game than most might expect.
Connecticut (24-8): This was supposed to be another rebuilding year for the Huskies, but give credit to their head coach, Jim Calhoun, who has done an incredible job in leading UCONN to a four seed this season. Another team with a balanced attack that includes five players who average at least 10.4 points a game. This should be UCLA's toughest test en route to the Elite 8.
Drake (28-4): The Bulldogs are somewhat of a mystery this year. After losing four starters and their two top scorers from last season, Drake was picked to finish 9th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Instead, the Bulldogs nearly ran the table finishing 15-3 in conference play en route to winning a conference championship and earning their first NCAA bid since 1971. If they can get past a stingy Western Kentucky team in the first round, we could be looking at an incredible second round matchup against UCONN.
Purdue (24-8): At one time, the Boilermakers were the team to beat in the Big Ten, ripping off 11 straight in the middle of the season before dropping three of their last six to finish the year. Like most Big Ten teams, Purdue is built upon their defense, which presents an interesting first round matchup against Baylor who is much more offensively minded. This might be the toughest pick in the first round. It will come down to which team's strength can outmatch the other.
West Virginia (24-10): The Mountaineers earned an at-large bid thanks to their first year head coach, Bob Huggins, who simply knows how to win. This is a tested club coming from the Big East who could surprise some teams in the tournament this year. Their first round matchup against Arizona should be an excellent battle between the Big East and Pac-10. If they can get past the Wildcats, it will be fun to see them face off against Duke.
BYU (27-7): The Cougars would have been a higher seed had they not fallen to UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship. This is a team who ended the year on a 15-2 run. BYU has a great inside-outside tandem in guard Lee Cummard and post Trent Plaisted who both averaged over 15 and a half points per game this season. However, the Cougs have drawn a very competitive match in the first round with Texas A&M who could give BYU trouble with their strong post presence.
Texas A&M (24-10): This is a very confusing Aggies club considering they began the year, 15-1, but finished by losing 6 of their last 10. A&M brings a very balanced attack with solid post play underneath, however, they don't have a consistent scorer, which could pose a problem for the Aggies in a tight game. Their first round test against BYU will be tough, and could come down to a last second shot, which doesn't look good for Texas A&M. If they can find consistency on the offensive end, they should move on to the second round for a grueling test against UCLA.
Arizona (19-14): Many skeptics believe that Arizona doesn't belong in the Big Dance this year, and they may be right. However, I disagree. The Wildcats are a very young team, but when they show signs of maturity, can be very explosive. Sophomore Chase Budinger is a 6-7 forward who can shoot it from anywhere on the court, and be sure to watch their freshman guard, Jerryd Bayless who can take over a game at any point. This is a very dangerous 10 seed who could pull off the upset against Duke in the second round if they learn how to mature quickly in the postseason. I at least like them over West Virginia in the opening round.
Baylor (21-10): Despite losing to Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 conference tournament, the Baylor Bears were still able to earn the final at-large bid by the tournament committee. This is a very fast-paced team who loves to run the floor. They've scored in triple digits five different times this season. However, they draw a defensive-minded Purdue team in the first round of the tourney, which should pose as an interesting matchup. One thing the Bears need to fix is their post play. Kevin Rogers is their only forward who averages in double figures, while center Josh Lomers is the second biggest threat inside for Baylor. He averaged just 3.8 points per game.
Western Kentucky (27-6): Many like the Hilltoppers as an upset special in the first round of the tournament, and who could blame them? Western Kentucky finished their season by winning 18 of their last 19 games, and nearly pulled off upsets against Gonzaga and Tennessee. The Hilltoppers are led by their senior Courtney Lee who averages over 20 points. While Drake may have more depth, this is a team who could pull off the first round upset if they can get some help from their bench.
San Diego (21-13): The Toreros come from a much improved West Coast Conference this year that is sending three teams to the Big Dance (Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Diego). San Diego clinched an automatic bid by defeating the Zags in the conference championship. You can't let their record fool you. This is a very strong team. After beginning the year 8-11, the Tereros went on a tear, wrapping up the season by winning 13 of their remaining 15 games. This is a team that could pull of the upset if UCONN overlooks them in the first round. However, they don't have the talent to compete against the Huskies if they come ready to play.
Georgia (17-16): It's still hard to believe that the Bulldogs are in considering a week ago, they were 13-16 while many believed were down to their final game. Give credit to Georgia as they prevailed through the SEC tournament earning the conference's automatic bid. They'll have to find that inspiration once again when they take on an overrated Xavier team. This is a club that could pull off the upset, but it's a very risky pick considering the clock always seems to strike midnight for these Cinderella teams. You just don't know when.
Belmont (25-8): The Bruins enter the tourney on a 13 game winning streak en route to their 3rd straight Atlantic Sun conference championshipship. And like their previous two trips to the Big Dance, Belmont will once again represent as a 15th seed where the Bruins hope to avoid being blown out for the third straight time. They may be able to hang with Duke for the first half, but the Blue Devils will run away with it in the second.
Mississippi Valley State (17-15): This is a team who's tale is split into two halves. The Delta Devils began the year on an 8 game losing streak, but finished the season on a nine game winning streak earning them a shot at UCLA in the first round. Unfortunately for MVSU, that streak will come to a crashing end at the hands of the Bruins in the first round of the tourney.
Don't forget to fill out your brackets! You have until 10:20 am before the opening round of the tourney begins. Best of luck to all of you!
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Bracket Buster (Part II)
MIDWEST REGION: This is arguably the second best region in the tournament with Big 12 champs Kansas, Big East champs Georgetown and Big Ten champs Wisconsin all representing. This should be a great bracket to watch, but not one to pick.
Kansas (31-3): This was the team I chose last year to win it all. However, after they fell to UCLA in the Elite, that pretty much ruined my bracket. This year, the Jayhawks return a ton of talent, including Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, each of whom average in double figures. Kansas plays more like an NBA team than a college sqaud, in which scoring is a priority, and defense is second. However, that being said, their athleticism can shut any team down in the country. Look for the Jayhawks to sweep through this bracket as long as their starting five comes to play.
Georgetown (27-5): The Big East was easily the second best conference in the nation this year sending eight representatives to the Big Dance. Georgetown claimed the regular season title, which makes them one of the best in the Big East Conference. I like Hoyas, but not quite as much as last year. Roy Hibbert is a beast inside, while Jonathan Wallace apparently can't miss from beyond the arc. However, the void of the departured Jeff Green has left this team without a go-to guy in the clutch. I like Georgetown returning to the Elite 8, but nothing further.
Wisconsin (29-4): It doesn't say a whole lot about the Big Ten this year when their conference champions are a third seed in the tourney. Either way, the Badgers kind of snuck up on the NCAA this year. The catalyst that will drive this team in the tournament is their defense, who held their opponent to under 60 points in 24 of their 33 games this year. It will be an interesting first round matchup for Wisconsin who faces Cal-State Fullerton, a team who's built on a run-and-gun offensive philosophy.
Vanderbilt (26-7): The SEC is a tough pick for me this year. They were by far the weakest of the six major conferences this year. Despite their fourth place finish in the conference, I thought Vanderbilt was the second best team in the SEC this year behind Tennessee. They'll be led by by conference MVP, Shan Foster. The senior swingman averages 20.5 points per game. Anything further than a Sweet 16 would be a major surprise.
Clemson (24-9): For some reason, I'm just not sold on this team. They like to jump out to early leads, but just can't finish in the clutch. They took North Carolina to two overtimes before falling in heartbreaking fashion. However, the Tigers are a very balance team. They have five players that average scoring in double figures. If Clemson can figure out how to finish, they could be a very dangerous team in the tournament.
USC (21-11): The Trojans are easily led by a very talented freshman class. O. J. Mayo is ahead of his time and is already polished enough for the NBA. Perhaps, too polished, which is why USC didn't get a higher seed. My problem with the Trojans is sometimes they spend too much time watching Mayo. I probably would as well. He's a phenomenal talent that can take USC only so far. Their first round matchup against another freshman phenom, Michael Beasley, and Kansas State should be one of the best games in the first round. If they can escape the Wildcats, they have a good chance of facing Georgetown in the Sweet 16. Don't forget about their sophomore center, Taj Gibson. He could be the X-factor for the Trojans if they go deep into the tourney.
Gonzaga (25-7): The Cinderella slipper just doesn't seem to fit anymore for the Bulldogs. They just don't scare anybody anymore. However, they're still a very talented team with a ton of tournament experience. If Josh Heytvelt can finally live up to his potential and emulate the same production as he did early last season, this could be a force to be reckon with. My guess is he doesn't, and they could receive a first round exit by a very good Davidson club.
UNLV (26-7): This was last year's suprise team in the tourney who make a Sweet 16 run while upsetting second seed Wisconsin. Despite losing most of their talent to graduation, UNLV has once again earned a spot in the Big Dance where they're one of the nation's hottest teams entering the tournament. They've won four straight and seven of their last eight. I like UNLV because of their head coach, Lon Kruger, who's incredibly smart and knows how to utilize his talent to its fullest. However, they're not quite ready yet to return to the Sweet 16 with Kansas standing in their way in the second round.
Kent State (28-6): The Golden Flashes enter the tournament as the Midwest Region's number 9 seed, which in my opinion, is a bit high considering their only quality wins are against George Mason and St. Mary's. They were 13 points worse than Xavier and 29 points away from beating North Carolina. I don't like their chances of defeating UNLV. On the flip side, check out junior guard Al Fisher, a junior college transfer, who was named as the Mid-American Conference's player of the year in just his first season in Division I.
Davidson (26-6): To me, this is one of the most intriguing first round matchups in the tournament. Davidson against Gonzaga should be a spectacular game. The Wildcats had no problems in conference play this season, finishing 23-0 en route to a Southern Conference Championship, which gives them a 23 game winning streak heading into the tourney. Sophomore guard Stephen Curry might be one of the nation's best scorers. He averages over 25 points a game this year, and shot over 43 percent from beyond the arc. This is a good, and if they believe in themselves, could become this year's Cinderella.
Kansas State (20-11): The Wildcats finished third in a competitive Big 12 conference this season. Of course, their main contributor, is freshman phenom, Michael Beasley, who could win the nation's player of the year after averaging 26.5 points per game (3rd best in the nation) and also pulled down over 12 rebounds per contest. Perhaps, best of all, the 6-10 Forward can also shoot lights out from the perimeter (nearly 39 percent from 3 point range), which makes him a potential number one overall pick in this year's draft. While Beasley won't be able to carry Kansas State into the Final Four, their first round test against O. J. Mayo and USC should be one of the most talked about games of the tournament.
Villanova (20-12): This is a bubble team that really didn't deserve a ticket to the Big Dance. They finished eighth in the Big East and were an early round exit in the conference tournament. While they may keep it close against Clemson early on, the Tigers will run away with it in the second half. NOVA will be a one-and-done.
Siena (22-10): The Saints punched their ticket into the NCAA tournament after earning an automatic bid by defeating Rider in the MAAC championship. This is a team who's built up some momentum within the past month by winning six straight. While their strength of schedule may be weak, their most impressive quality win has to be against Stanford early in the season. The Saints have a nice offensive trio in Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex Franklin, who all averaged in double figures this season. If you're looking for a major first round upset, the Saints would be a fair pick considering they're facing the weakest 4th seed in the tournament, Vanderbilt, in the first round.
Cal State Fullerton (24-8): The Titans are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1978 thanks to an explosive offense which is led by junior Josh Akognon, who averaged nearly 20 points a game. Akognon transferred to Fullerton two years ago from Washington State, and brings a hot hand from beyond the arc. If he heats up, Akognon can make it from anywhere on the court. The one problem the Titans face, the Wisconsin Badgers, who bring a completely opposite style to the floor. While Fullerton likes to run, the Badgers like to slow it down. The team that can handle making the adjustment will win.
UMBC (24-8): After posting 24 wins, which is more than their previous two seasons combined, the University of Maryland-Baltimore County is heading to the Big Dance for the first time in school history, which makes them an underdawg favorite. Unfortunately for the Retrievers, they'll be an early exit considering they don't have the talent to compete with Roy Hibbert and the Hoyas of Georgetown. They're starting post, Cavell Johnson is 6-8. Hibbert is 7-2.
Portland State (23-9): Apparently the tournament committee wasn't very impressed with the Big Sky Conference this year, considering the conference champs, Portland State, is headed to the Big Dance as a 16th seed. While the Vikings were the best shooting team in the Big Sky this year, they're in for a whole new kind of competition when they take on Kansas. This game could be close midway through the 1st half, but the Jayhawks will dominate after that.
I'll break down the West and South Regional brackets tomorrow.
Kansas (31-3): This was the team I chose last year to win it all. However, after they fell to UCLA in the Elite, that pretty much ruined my bracket. This year, the Jayhawks return a ton of talent, including Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, each of whom average in double figures. Kansas plays more like an NBA team than a college sqaud, in which scoring is a priority, and defense is second. However, that being said, their athleticism can shut any team down in the country. Look for the Jayhawks to sweep through this bracket as long as their starting five comes to play.
Georgetown (27-5): The Big East was easily the second best conference in the nation this year sending eight representatives to the Big Dance. Georgetown claimed the regular season title, which makes them one of the best in the Big East Conference. I like Hoyas, but not quite as much as last year. Roy Hibbert is a beast inside, while Jonathan Wallace apparently can't miss from beyond the arc. However, the void of the departured Jeff Green has left this team without a go-to guy in the clutch. I like Georgetown returning to the Elite 8, but nothing further.
Wisconsin (29-4): It doesn't say a whole lot about the Big Ten this year when their conference champions are a third seed in the tourney. Either way, the Badgers kind of snuck up on the NCAA this year. The catalyst that will drive this team in the tournament is their defense, who held their opponent to under 60 points in 24 of their 33 games this year. It will be an interesting first round matchup for Wisconsin who faces Cal-State Fullerton, a team who's built on a run-and-gun offensive philosophy.
Vanderbilt (26-7): The SEC is a tough pick for me this year. They were by far the weakest of the six major conferences this year. Despite their fourth place finish in the conference, I thought Vanderbilt was the second best team in the SEC this year behind Tennessee. They'll be led by by conference MVP, Shan Foster. The senior swingman averages 20.5 points per game. Anything further than a Sweet 16 would be a major surprise.
Clemson (24-9): For some reason, I'm just not sold on this team. They like to jump out to early leads, but just can't finish in the clutch. They took North Carolina to two overtimes before falling in heartbreaking fashion. However, the Tigers are a very balance team. They have five players that average scoring in double figures. If Clemson can figure out how to finish, they could be a very dangerous team in the tournament.
USC (21-11): The Trojans are easily led by a very talented freshman class. O. J. Mayo is ahead of his time and is already polished enough for the NBA. Perhaps, too polished, which is why USC didn't get a higher seed. My problem with the Trojans is sometimes they spend too much time watching Mayo. I probably would as well. He's a phenomenal talent that can take USC only so far. Their first round matchup against another freshman phenom, Michael Beasley, and Kansas State should be one of the best games in the first round. If they can escape the Wildcats, they have a good chance of facing Georgetown in the Sweet 16. Don't forget about their sophomore center, Taj Gibson. He could be the X-factor for the Trojans if they go deep into the tourney.
Gonzaga (25-7): The Cinderella slipper just doesn't seem to fit anymore for the Bulldogs. They just don't scare anybody anymore. However, they're still a very talented team with a ton of tournament experience. If Josh Heytvelt can finally live up to his potential and emulate the same production as he did early last season, this could be a force to be reckon with. My guess is he doesn't, and they could receive a first round exit by a very good Davidson club.
UNLV (26-7): This was last year's suprise team in the tourney who make a Sweet 16 run while upsetting second seed Wisconsin. Despite losing most of their talent to graduation, UNLV has once again earned a spot in the Big Dance where they're one of the nation's hottest teams entering the tournament. They've won four straight and seven of their last eight. I like UNLV because of their head coach, Lon Kruger, who's incredibly smart and knows how to utilize his talent to its fullest. However, they're not quite ready yet to return to the Sweet 16 with Kansas standing in their way in the second round.
Kent State (28-6): The Golden Flashes enter the tournament as the Midwest Region's number 9 seed, which in my opinion, is a bit high considering their only quality wins are against George Mason and St. Mary's. They were 13 points worse than Xavier and 29 points away from beating North Carolina. I don't like their chances of defeating UNLV. On the flip side, check out junior guard Al Fisher, a junior college transfer, who was named as the Mid-American Conference's player of the year in just his first season in Division I.
Davidson (26-6): To me, this is one of the most intriguing first round matchups in the tournament. Davidson against Gonzaga should be a spectacular game. The Wildcats had no problems in conference play this season, finishing 23-0 en route to a Southern Conference Championship, which gives them a 23 game winning streak heading into the tourney. Sophomore guard Stephen Curry might be one of the nation's best scorers. He averages over 25 points a game this year, and shot over 43 percent from beyond the arc. This is a good, and if they believe in themselves, could become this year's Cinderella.
Kansas State (20-11): The Wildcats finished third in a competitive Big 12 conference this season. Of course, their main contributor, is freshman phenom, Michael Beasley, who could win the nation's player of the year after averaging 26.5 points per game (3rd best in the nation) and also pulled down over 12 rebounds per contest. Perhaps, best of all, the 6-10 Forward can also shoot lights out from the perimeter (nearly 39 percent from 3 point range), which makes him a potential number one overall pick in this year's draft. While Beasley won't be able to carry Kansas State into the Final Four, their first round test against O. J. Mayo and USC should be one of the most talked about games of the tournament.
Villanova (20-12): This is a bubble team that really didn't deserve a ticket to the Big Dance. They finished eighth in the Big East and were an early round exit in the conference tournament. While they may keep it close against Clemson early on, the Tigers will run away with it in the second half. NOVA will be a one-and-done.
Siena (22-10): The Saints punched their ticket into the NCAA tournament after earning an automatic bid by defeating Rider in the MAAC championship. This is a team who's built up some momentum within the past month by winning six straight. While their strength of schedule may be weak, their most impressive quality win has to be against Stanford early in the season. The Saints have a nice offensive trio in Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex Franklin, who all averaged in double figures this season. If you're looking for a major first round upset, the Saints would be a fair pick considering they're facing the weakest 4th seed in the tournament, Vanderbilt, in the first round.
Cal State Fullerton (24-8): The Titans are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1978 thanks to an explosive offense which is led by junior Josh Akognon, who averaged nearly 20 points a game. Akognon transferred to Fullerton two years ago from Washington State, and brings a hot hand from beyond the arc. If he heats up, Akognon can make it from anywhere on the court. The one problem the Titans face, the Wisconsin Badgers, who bring a completely opposite style to the floor. While Fullerton likes to run, the Badgers like to slow it down. The team that can handle making the adjustment will win.
UMBC (24-8): After posting 24 wins, which is more than their previous two seasons combined, the University of Maryland-Baltimore County is heading to the Big Dance for the first time in school history, which makes them an underdawg favorite. Unfortunately for the Retrievers, they'll be an early exit considering they don't have the talent to compete with Roy Hibbert and the Hoyas of Georgetown. They're starting post, Cavell Johnson is 6-8. Hibbert is 7-2.
Portland State (23-9): Apparently the tournament committee wasn't very impressed with the Big Sky Conference this year, considering the conference champs, Portland State, is headed to the Big Dance as a 16th seed. While the Vikings were the best shooting team in the Big Sky this year, they're in for a whole new kind of competition when they take on Kansas. This game could be close midway through the 1st half, but the Jayhawks will dominate after that.
I'll break down the West and South Regional brackets tomorrow.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Bracket Buster (Part 1)
It's that time of year again for all of us to pick out our lucky pen and fill out our NCAA tournament brackets. In my experience, you're never going to pick every game right. There's always upsets somwhere along the journey to the Final Four. How many of us can honestly say we picked George Mason to go all the way to the Final Four two years ago. Not me! Picking upsets is risky, but it's necessary if you want to win your office tournament bracket pool. Lucky for you, I'm here to help. Here's my look at each region in this year's NCAA tournament.
EAST REGION: Many are calling this the toughest bracket in this year's tourney. They may be right. From top to bottom, the East Region has a plethora of talent. Starting the from top, North Carolina, all the way to the bottom, including Boise State and American.
North Carolina (32-2): This might be the most athletic team in the country, and some are calling it the best. However, don't let the name, or the record, fool you. In my opinion, UNC is a product of a poor ACC conference. While they are still one of the best teams in the country, they really haven't been truly tested like other squads from the Pac-10 and Big East this season. They've also played in several close contests, including seven of their 30 wins this year have been by 5 points or less, while another 2 have come in Overtime. But on the flip side, good teams know how to win in the clutch. One thing the Tar Heels have going for them is that the road to the Final Four in the East goes through their home state of North Carolina. So, every game could essentially be a home game for them en route to San Antonio. They're a safe pick to go to the Final Four, but I wouldn't call them a lock.
Tennessee (29-4): When they're at their best, they can beat anybody in the country, but when they go cold, they can lose to anyone in the bracket. The Volunteers live and die by the 3 point shot. If you have good perimeter defense that can put pressure on Tennessee's outside shooters, you can beat them. They also don't play defense. If Tennessee gets hot, then look out, but if they go cold, they better hope it's against an opponent who shoots just as poorly.
Louisville (24-8): You can't forget about the Cardinals. This is a team that has kind of slipped through the cracks of the national spotlight considering they're on a two game losing streak. However, they have as good of a coach in Rick Pitino as anyone in the country. And he knows how to win, considering he led Louisville to a Final Four appearance just three years ago. If this team hits their stride at the right time, then watch out.
Washington State (24-8): WAZZU comes from the Pac-10, which in my opinion, was the best conference in the country this year. That means, they've played against tournament quality opponents all season long. So, this shouldn't be anything new for the Cougars. Washington State is led by their senior corps of guards that might be one of the best backcourts in the country. However, they've been very inconsistent this season. Remember the name Aron Baynes, their 6-10, 265 pound Junior center. If he can play up to his potential, they have a shot at knocking off UNC in the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame (24-7): The Fighting Irish seems to be a novelty every year they reach the tournament. They always seem to put up great regular season numbers before falling hard in the tournament. Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, they've never made it further than the Sweet 16. However, Notre Dame comes from a solid Big East conference, which should have prepared them for a tough field ahead of them. Look out for sophomore forward, Luke Harangody. He's averaging 20.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
Oklahoma (22-11): This is a tough team to figure, considering they finished fifth in the Big 12, yet earn a sixth seed in the tournament. Their last quality win was back on February 19th, a 92-91 overtime win against Baylor. Other quality wins were against Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Viriginia, but all of those were early in the season. I don't expect this team to last further than the second round. This could be a perfect pick for a first round upset.
Butler (29-3): Butler probably feels as though they got the shaft considering they earned a seventh seed after finishing the season with a 29-3 mark. And maybe they're right considering their three losses were by a combined 12 points this year. The Bulldogs finished the year with the nation's 10th best ranking after wrapping up the Horizon League Tournament. Last year, they earned a fifth seed, and were the closest out of any team to defeat the eventual national champions, Florida, in the Sweet 16. If Butler can escape South Alabama, they could surprise some teams.
Indiana (25-7): Another very interesting squad. They have an amazing talent in freshman guard, Eric Gordon, who averaged 21.5 points a game this year in leading the Hoosiers to a third place finish in the Big Ten. However, they are playing with an interim head coach who took over after Kelvin Sampson was forced to resign following more NCAA violations. If this team can play up to their caliber and find a way to play together under their interim head coach, Dan Dakich, they should have no problems in defeating Arkansas in the first round, and could even pose as a major threat to North Carolina in the second.
Arkansas (22-11): It's tough to really pick any SEC team, other than Tennessee this year, considering the conference was so weak. However, Arkansas did defeat the Vols in the conference semis this past weekend before losing to Georgia in the championship game. This is not a team that relies on one player to carry them. They have five players who average 9.3 points per game or better. The Razorbacks must get over their recent struggles in the NCAA tournament. They're last tournament win was in 1999 when they defeated Siena before losing to Iowa. That was just five years after their last national championship run.
South Alabama (26-6): This is a team to me that has a great record coming out of weak conference. Their two biggest quality wins this year are against Western Kentucky and Mississippi State. They also took Vanderbilt to overtime. However, they have a tough first round matchup against Butler, which will most likely be an early exit for the Jaguars.
St. Joes (21-12): This is a team who could very easily upset Oklahoma in the first round. They've defeated Xavier twice this season, including their most recent win in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10. If I had to choose, this would be my upset special in the first round of the NCAA tournament. After that, good luck to the Hawks, because I don't see them getting past Louisville.
George Mason (23-10): You always have to keep your eye on these 12 seeds because it seems every year at least one of them pulls off the upset over a 5. And who could forget this Patriots team who defined "Cinderella" this time of year by marching into the Final Four as an 11th seed two years ago. This is a team who defeated Kansas State earlier this year. While they have a very tough test against Notre Dame in the first round, don't count out the Patriots. They have more tournament experience over the past two years than the Fighting Irish have over the past decade.
Winthrop (22-11): They have a stellar guard in Michael Jenkins who can put up 30+ if he has to, however, the Eagles only have one quality win this year. That was against Miami (FL) last December. This is their fourth straight tournament appearance, and 8th in the past 10 years. But they're just 1-7 all-time in tourney play. Unless WAZZU shows signs of extreme rust early on, don't expect to see any upset in the first round. But if they do make it to the second round, it could be an interesting matchup against Notre Dame, whom they defeated last year in the first round.
Boise State (25-8): You have to remember, this isn't football, but this is a very interesting Broncos team, who's making their first tournament appearance since 1994 when they were apart of the Big Sky. They've been to the Big Dance five times, and have received a 14th seed in each of their last four. They have three players who average at least 14 points a game or more, which means they have plenty of offense. While I don't expect them to defeat Louisville, you never know what you're going to get out of a team who's coming off a 14 year drought.
American (21-11): After falling in the Patriot League Conference championship the past three seasons, the Eagles are finally headed to the NCAA tourney for the first time in school history. Unfortunately, it will only be a one game experience.
Coppin St./Mount St. Marys: Both of these teams square off in a one game playoff for the right to face North Carolina in the first round. Enough said.
I'll breakdown the Midwest Bracket tomorrow...
EAST REGION: Many are calling this the toughest bracket in this year's tourney. They may be right. From top to bottom, the East Region has a plethora of talent. Starting the from top, North Carolina, all the way to the bottom, including Boise State and American.
North Carolina (32-2): This might be the most athletic team in the country, and some are calling it the best. However, don't let the name, or the record, fool you. In my opinion, UNC is a product of a poor ACC conference. While they are still one of the best teams in the country, they really haven't been truly tested like other squads from the Pac-10 and Big East this season. They've also played in several close contests, including seven of their 30 wins this year have been by 5 points or less, while another 2 have come in Overtime. But on the flip side, good teams know how to win in the clutch. One thing the Tar Heels have going for them is that the road to the Final Four in the East goes through their home state of North Carolina. So, every game could essentially be a home game for them en route to San Antonio. They're a safe pick to go to the Final Four, but I wouldn't call them a lock.
Tennessee (29-4): When they're at their best, they can beat anybody in the country, but when they go cold, they can lose to anyone in the bracket. The Volunteers live and die by the 3 point shot. If you have good perimeter defense that can put pressure on Tennessee's outside shooters, you can beat them. They also don't play defense. If Tennessee gets hot, then look out, but if they go cold, they better hope it's against an opponent who shoots just as poorly.
Louisville (24-8): You can't forget about the Cardinals. This is a team that has kind of slipped through the cracks of the national spotlight considering they're on a two game losing streak. However, they have as good of a coach in Rick Pitino as anyone in the country. And he knows how to win, considering he led Louisville to a Final Four appearance just three years ago. If this team hits their stride at the right time, then watch out.
Washington State (24-8): WAZZU comes from the Pac-10, which in my opinion, was the best conference in the country this year. That means, they've played against tournament quality opponents all season long. So, this shouldn't be anything new for the Cougars. Washington State is led by their senior corps of guards that might be one of the best backcourts in the country. However, they've been very inconsistent this season. Remember the name Aron Baynes, their 6-10, 265 pound Junior center. If he can play up to his potential, they have a shot at knocking off UNC in the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame (24-7): The Fighting Irish seems to be a novelty every year they reach the tournament. They always seem to put up great regular season numbers before falling hard in the tournament. Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, they've never made it further than the Sweet 16. However, Notre Dame comes from a solid Big East conference, which should have prepared them for a tough field ahead of them. Look out for sophomore forward, Luke Harangody. He's averaging 20.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
Oklahoma (22-11): This is a tough team to figure, considering they finished fifth in the Big 12, yet earn a sixth seed in the tournament. Their last quality win was back on February 19th, a 92-91 overtime win against Baylor. Other quality wins were against Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Viriginia, but all of those were early in the season. I don't expect this team to last further than the second round. This could be a perfect pick for a first round upset.
Butler (29-3): Butler probably feels as though they got the shaft considering they earned a seventh seed after finishing the season with a 29-3 mark. And maybe they're right considering their three losses were by a combined 12 points this year. The Bulldogs finished the year with the nation's 10th best ranking after wrapping up the Horizon League Tournament. Last year, they earned a fifth seed, and were the closest out of any team to defeat the eventual national champions, Florida, in the Sweet 16. If Butler can escape South Alabama, they could surprise some teams.
Indiana (25-7): Another very interesting squad. They have an amazing talent in freshman guard, Eric Gordon, who averaged 21.5 points a game this year in leading the Hoosiers to a third place finish in the Big Ten. However, they are playing with an interim head coach who took over after Kelvin Sampson was forced to resign following more NCAA violations. If this team can play up to their caliber and find a way to play together under their interim head coach, Dan Dakich, they should have no problems in defeating Arkansas in the first round, and could even pose as a major threat to North Carolina in the second.
Arkansas (22-11): It's tough to really pick any SEC team, other than Tennessee this year, considering the conference was so weak. However, Arkansas did defeat the Vols in the conference semis this past weekend before losing to Georgia in the championship game. This is not a team that relies on one player to carry them. They have five players who average 9.3 points per game or better. The Razorbacks must get over their recent struggles in the NCAA tournament. They're last tournament win was in 1999 when they defeated Siena before losing to Iowa. That was just five years after their last national championship run.
South Alabama (26-6): This is a team to me that has a great record coming out of weak conference. Their two biggest quality wins this year are against Western Kentucky and Mississippi State. They also took Vanderbilt to overtime. However, they have a tough first round matchup against Butler, which will most likely be an early exit for the Jaguars.
St. Joes (21-12): This is a team who could very easily upset Oklahoma in the first round. They've defeated Xavier twice this season, including their most recent win in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10. If I had to choose, this would be my upset special in the first round of the NCAA tournament. After that, good luck to the Hawks, because I don't see them getting past Louisville.
George Mason (23-10): You always have to keep your eye on these 12 seeds because it seems every year at least one of them pulls off the upset over a 5. And who could forget this Patriots team who defined "Cinderella" this time of year by marching into the Final Four as an 11th seed two years ago. This is a team who defeated Kansas State earlier this year. While they have a very tough test against Notre Dame in the first round, don't count out the Patriots. They have more tournament experience over the past two years than the Fighting Irish have over the past decade.
Winthrop (22-11): They have a stellar guard in Michael Jenkins who can put up 30+ if he has to, however, the Eagles only have one quality win this year. That was against Miami (FL) last December. This is their fourth straight tournament appearance, and 8th in the past 10 years. But they're just 1-7 all-time in tourney play. Unless WAZZU shows signs of extreme rust early on, don't expect to see any upset in the first round. But if they do make it to the second round, it could be an interesting matchup against Notre Dame, whom they defeated last year in the first round.
Boise State (25-8): You have to remember, this isn't football, but this is a very interesting Broncos team, who's making their first tournament appearance since 1994 when they were apart of the Big Sky. They've been to the Big Dance five times, and have received a 14th seed in each of their last four. They have three players who average at least 14 points a game or more, which means they have plenty of offense. While I don't expect them to defeat Louisville, you never know what you're going to get out of a team who's coming off a 14 year drought.
American (21-11): After falling in the Patriot League Conference championship the past three seasons, the Eagles are finally headed to the NCAA tourney for the first time in school history. Unfortunately, it will only be a one game experience.
Coppin St./Mount St. Marys: Both of these teams square off in a one game playoff for the right to face North Carolina in the first round. Enough said.
I'll breakdown the Midwest Bracket tomorrow...
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Double The Pleasure, Double The Fun
In honor of the fact that Great Falls is hosting both the boys and girls AA basketball tournaments, I decided to break down each bracket and predict my winners from both tournaments.
Class AA Girls: This should be the most competitive tournament amongst the two. You have both championship finalists from last years tournament returning, Bozeman and Capital. While there's plenty of talent in Butte, Billings West and Missoula Big Sky.
The Favorite: I don't know how you can pick against Butte. They're 19-1 this season, and their only loss was against a very talented, and might I add, defending state champions of Bozeman. In their 19 wins this season, the Lady Bulldogs' average margin of victory was 22 points.
Don't Count Out: There's obviously Bozeman, who are the two-time defending state champs, and some might say, until they get knocked off, they're still the champs. I can't argue with that. However, don't count out Missoula Big Sky, who rocked the Western AA conference with an 11-1 record while Missoula Sentinel was the only conference team to defeat them this year. They're 15-5.
The Dark Horse: I like CMR in this category. When they're on, they might be one of the top 3 teams in the state. The only problem I have with the Lady Rustlers is that they're incredibly inconsistent. If they can find their consistency in the next three games, they'll be a force to reckon with, but they'll have to get past a very tough Big Sky team who has one of the state's best players in Tinkle, and even if they win that game, they'll face the winner of Capital and Bozeman, both of whom met in last season's championship game.
Class AA Boys: I think this tournament is a much more one-sided race. It's a pretty safe bet that Sentinel will face Billings West in the championship game.
The Favorite: I think either West or Sentinel is a good pick here. West finished their season 20-1 while Sentinel was 18-2. Either way, I have seen West up front, and I can tell you, they were the best team I saw in person this year. So, using that as the backbone of my reasoning, I'll say West in this category, but again, both of these two should meet up in the championship game for one great show!
Don't Count Out: This is somewhat of a tough category. Helena has been very solid this season, but they lost five of their last eight down the stretch. And they lost both of their games against Sentinel by an average of 19 points. Capital could be considered a strong candidate considering they are one of two teams who defeated Sentinel this season, but they were swept by Helena in both of their crosstown meetings. Bozeman has enough manpower to make it to the finals and were the only squad to upset West this year, but they're another team who fizzled in the second half of the season.
The Dark Horse: There are pretty much three categories of teams in the boys tournament this year. You have Sentinel and West at the top. Helena, Capital and Bozeman are strong seconds, and then there is everybody else, which pretty much includes Billing Skyview, CMR and Missoula Big Sky. For the Dark Horse, I'll go with Billings Skyview. I know what you're thinking. They were just 10-11 this season, and 3-9 in Eastern AA conference play, but they are coming off a very impressive win on the road against Butte in their one game playoff. Keep in mind that this tournament is 1-and-done, which pretty much means, if you can get hot at the right time, you might be able to run off three straight. The only other team I could fit in here is CMR, but I think they're a year or two from being something truly special, so I'll go with Skyview just for fun. That way, if they continue to upset teams, I can at least say, I told you so!
Class AA Girls: This should be the most competitive tournament amongst the two. You have both championship finalists from last years tournament returning, Bozeman and Capital. While there's plenty of talent in Butte, Billings West and Missoula Big Sky.
The Favorite: I don't know how you can pick against Butte. They're 19-1 this season, and their only loss was against a very talented, and might I add, defending state champions of Bozeman. In their 19 wins this season, the Lady Bulldogs' average margin of victory was 22 points.
Don't Count Out: There's obviously Bozeman, who are the two-time defending state champs, and some might say, until they get knocked off, they're still the champs. I can't argue with that. However, don't count out Missoula Big Sky, who rocked the Western AA conference with an 11-1 record while Missoula Sentinel was the only conference team to defeat them this year. They're 15-5.
The Dark Horse: I like CMR in this category. When they're on, they might be one of the top 3 teams in the state. The only problem I have with the Lady Rustlers is that they're incredibly inconsistent. If they can find their consistency in the next three games, they'll be a force to reckon with, but they'll have to get past a very tough Big Sky team who has one of the state's best players in Tinkle, and even if they win that game, they'll face the winner of Capital and Bozeman, both of whom met in last season's championship game.
Class AA Boys: I think this tournament is a much more one-sided race. It's a pretty safe bet that Sentinel will face Billings West in the championship game.
The Favorite: I think either West or Sentinel is a good pick here. West finished their season 20-1 while Sentinel was 18-2. Either way, I have seen West up front, and I can tell you, they were the best team I saw in person this year. So, using that as the backbone of my reasoning, I'll say West in this category, but again, both of these two should meet up in the championship game for one great show!
Don't Count Out: This is somewhat of a tough category. Helena has been very solid this season, but they lost five of their last eight down the stretch. And they lost both of their games against Sentinel by an average of 19 points. Capital could be considered a strong candidate considering they are one of two teams who defeated Sentinel this season, but they were swept by Helena in both of their crosstown meetings. Bozeman has enough manpower to make it to the finals and were the only squad to upset West this year, but they're another team who fizzled in the second half of the season.
The Dark Horse: There are pretty much three categories of teams in the boys tournament this year. You have Sentinel and West at the top. Helena, Capital and Bozeman are strong seconds, and then there is everybody else, which pretty much includes Billing Skyview, CMR and Missoula Big Sky. For the Dark Horse, I'll go with Billings Skyview. I know what you're thinking. They were just 10-11 this season, and 3-9 in Eastern AA conference play, but they are coming off a very impressive win on the road against Butte in their one game playoff. Keep in mind that this tournament is 1-and-done, which pretty much means, if you can get hot at the right time, you might be able to run off three straight. The only other team I could fit in here is CMR, but I think they're a year or two from being something truly special, so I'll go with Skyview just for fun. That way, if they continue to upset teams, I can at least say, I told you so!
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
How Will You Remember Favre?
It was a cold and windy night at Lambeau Field. I remember that night, sitting in my living room watching the NFC Championship game. Forecasters called it one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history. By kickoff, the temperature on the field was a miserable -20 degrees below zero. I also remember not feeling so bad for those in Green Bay, Wisconsin because Mother Nature had also hit us hard here in Great Falls, Montana that Sunday evening. We were dipping around -20 below with the wind chill ourselves. For some reason, the football gods were merciless to those victims both on and off the field in Green Bay. They weren't going to let the Giants and Packers finish their game in 60 minutes. Nope, we needed an extra period to decide the fate of the eventual NFC champs.
Just about everyone seemed to look miserable that night at Lambeau. If Tom Coughlin's face got any redder, he could have passed for a stop sign. Across the way, you could hardly see the face of Packers head coach Mike McCarthy he had so many garments covering his head. But McCarthy had a sort of ease on his face that night. He had Brett Favre, one of NFL's greatest quarterbacks.
Brett Favre normally thrived in these conditions. A week earlier, he had led Green Bay to a 42-20 romp over Seattle in a blizzard, playing one of his most inspired games in years. But not tonight. Favre actually looked vulnerable. Yep, vulnerable. I had never seen Favre look the way he did that night. His face said it all. The weather had gotten to the 38 year old.
I still remember that pass. I could almost feel as soon as it left Favre's hand that it was going to be intercepted. Green Bay's Super Bowl fate rested on the shoulders of their favorite player. And on that night at Lambeau Field, Brett Favre could not deliver.
He had done it numerous times before. Earlier that season, in a Monday Night Football game in Denver, Favre had orchestrated one of his greatest comebacks in his 17 year career, an 80 yard pass to Donald Driver in Overtime to win it. But not tonight.
The ball fluttered out of Favre's hand like a birdie in badminton on a windy day. Cory Webster was the hero for the New York Giant's defense that night. In the span of 3 seconds, Webster jumped in front of Donald Driver, who had already committed to his break toward the sidelines and picked it off. It wasn't Favre's best throw, or read for that matter. Most Packer fans can look back at the replay and watch Ryan Grant crossing into the flat, wide open. But like many times in Favre's career, he had commited to his read before the snap. However, unbeknownst to us all, it would be Brett Favre's final pass of his illustrious career. Of course, four plays later, Lawrence Tynes kicked a 47 yard field goal to win it for the Giants in overtime sending them to the Super Bowl. It would be our last memory of Brett Favre, but at least for me, it won't be my first.
How do you define a legend? Is it by records? Success? Trophies? Favre was a legend in his own right, but not by any of the reasons listed above. Brett Favre was a legend because he lived to play the game.
There are players, and then there are heroes. Most of us who watched football growing up can think of a player who we admired and dreamed of becoming on a Sunday afternoon in the NFL. If you grew up watching football during the 60's, maybe it was Johnny Unitas, or Bart Starr. Maybe you were somewhat of a rebel and loved watching Joe Namath deliver his own guarantee by defeating the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. How could we forget Bradshaw and Staubach of the 70's, and of course the 80's introduced us to Marino, Elway and Montana. But the 90's needed a new hero. And that's where Brett Favre stepped in. He was a Mississippi boy who didn't play the game technically sound. But he played the game right. He took chances that didn't always pay off. But he also took the chances that led the Packers to their first Super Bowl win in nearly 3 decades. Brett Favre played the game because he loved it.
You can't define a hero based upon quantative analysis. Sure, his stats are unreal. Favre will go down as the all-time leader in passing yards, touchdown passes, completions, most wins by a starting quarterback, most consecutive starts by a quarterback and most MVP's won by a single player. But he also threw for more interceptions than any other quarterback in NFL history.
What about trophies? In 17 seasons, he won a Super Bowl, something Dan Marino never achieved. But his one Vince Lombardi trophy ranks him in the same class as the likes of Brad Johnson, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer and now Eli Manning. Even former Packers quarterback Bart Starr holds the record in Green Bay with two Super Bowls.
So, how do we remember Brett Favre? Where does he stand in the All-time quarterbacks list? I, for one, have never seen another player enjoy playing the game as much as Brett Favre. He defined himself in a league that was quickly running out of heroes. There was no player like Favre before him, and there is no player like him today. He was the ultimate innovator. No play was ever over as long as #4 was in the pocket. He threw underhand just about as much as he did overhand at times. Some of the greatest NFL games I ever saw featured Brett Favre playing on one side of the ball. While he's considered as the NFL Iron Man, I can remember numerous times he cried on television. In a Monday Night game against the Raiders following his father's death, Favre threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, accumulating nearly a perfect passer rating. And then following it all, we saw him break down on national TV, and watched him cry in front of a millions of viewers. Just a year later, we watched him put together another incredible season on the field, while his wife battled through breast cancer. But through it all, football became Favre's release in life. He played every game like he was a kid again. He played through it all, even pain. I remember watching him one season play with a broken thumb and come back in another twice after suffering two different concussions in the same game. It seemed like nothing could keep Brett Favre off the football field. Until today.
I won't remember Favre for the stats, or his one Super Bowl ring, or even for that cold Sunday night at Lambeau Field. I will remember Brett Favre as a Mississippi boy who grew up into a man before our very eyes. A man who defined his love of the game every time he stepped onto the football field. A man who every kid aspired to be at one time or another. That's how I'll remember Brett Favre. But I guess the question still remains. How will you?
Just about everyone seemed to look miserable that night at Lambeau. If Tom Coughlin's face got any redder, he could have passed for a stop sign. Across the way, you could hardly see the face of Packers head coach Mike McCarthy he had so many garments covering his head. But McCarthy had a sort of ease on his face that night. He had Brett Favre, one of NFL's greatest quarterbacks.
Brett Favre normally thrived in these conditions. A week earlier, he had led Green Bay to a 42-20 romp over Seattle in a blizzard, playing one of his most inspired games in years. But not tonight. Favre actually looked vulnerable. Yep, vulnerable. I had never seen Favre look the way he did that night. His face said it all. The weather had gotten to the 38 year old.
I still remember that pass. I could almost feel as soon as it left Favre's hand that it was going to be intercepted. Green Bay's Super Bowl fate rested on the shoulders of their favorite player. And on that night at Lambeau Field, Brett Favre could not deliver.
He had done it numerous times before. Earlier that season, in a Monday Night Football game in Denver, Favre had orchestrated one of his greatest comebacks in his 17 year career, an 80 yard pass to Donald Driver in Overtime to win it. But not tonight.
The ball fluttered out of Favre's hand like a birdie in badminton on a windy day. Cory Webster was the hero for the New York Giant's defense that night. In the span of 3 seconds, Webster jumped in front of Donald Driver, who had already committed to his break toward the sidelines and picked it off. It wasn't Favre's best throw, or read for that matter. Most Packer fans can look back at the replay and watch Ryan Grant crossing into the flat, wide open. But like many times in Favre's career, he had commited to his read before the snap. However, unbeknownst to us all, it would be Brett Favre's final pass of his illustrious career. Of course, four plays later, Lawrence Tynes kicked a 47 yard field goal to win it for the Giants in overtime sending them to the Super Bowl. It would be our last memory of Brett Favre, but at least for me, it won't be my first.
How do you define a legend? Is it by records? Success? Trophies? Favre was a legend in his own right, but not by any of the reasons listed above. Brett Favre was a legend because he lived to play the game.
There are players, and then there are heroes. Most of us who watched football growing up can think of a player who we admired and dreamed of becoming on a Sunday afternoon in the NFL. If you grew up watching football during the 60's, maybe it was Johnny Unitas, or Bart Starr. Maybe you were somewhat of a rebel and loved watching Joe Namath deliver his own guarantee by defeating the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. How could we forget Bradshaw and Staubach of the 70's, and of course the 80's introduced us to Marino, Elway and Montana. But the 90's needed a new hero. And that's where Brett Favre stepped in. He was a Mississippi boy who didn't play the game technically sound. But he played the game right. He took chances that didn't always pay off. But he also took the chances that led the Packers to their first Super Bowl win in nearly 3 decades. Brett Favre played the game because he loved it.
You can't define a hero based upon quantative analysis. Sure, his stats are unreal. Favre will go down as the all-time leader in passing yards, touchdown passes, completions, most wins by a starting quarterback, most consecutive starts by a quarterback and most MVP's won by a single player. But he also threw for more interceptions than any other quarterback in NFL history.
What about trophies? In 17 seasons, he won a Super Bowl, something Dan Marino never achieved. But his one Vince Lombardi trophy ranks him in the same class as the likes of Brad Johnson, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer and now Eli Manning. Even former Packers quarterback Bart Starr holds the record in Green Bay with two Super Bowls.
So, how do we remember Brett Favre? Where does he stand in the All-time quarterbacks list? I, for one, have never seen another player enjoy playing the game as much as Brett Favre. He defined himself in a league that was quickly running out of heroes. There was no player like Favre before him, and there is no player like him today. He was the ultimate innovator. No play was ever over as long as #4 was in the pocket. He threw underhand just about as much as he did overhand at times. Some of the greatest NFL games I ever saw featured Brett Favre playing on one side of the ball. While he's considered as the NFL Iron Man, I can remember numerous times he cried on television. In a Monday Night game against the Raiders following his father's death, Favre threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, accumulating nearly a perfect passer rating. And then following it all, we saw him break down on national TV, and watched him cry in front of a millions of viewers. Just a year later, we watched him put together another incredible season on the field, while his wife battled through breast cancer. But through it all, football became Favre's release in life. He played every game like he was a kid again. He played through it all, even pain. I remember watching him one season play with a broken thumb and come back in another twice after suffering two different concussions in the same game. It seemed like nothing could keep Brett Favre off the football field. Until today.
I won't remember Favre for the stats, or his one Super Bowl ring, or even for that cold Sunday night at Lambeau Field. I will remember Brett Favre as a Mississippi boy who grew up into a man before our very eyes. A man who defined his love of the game every time he stepped onto the football field. A man who every kid aspired to be at one time or another. That's how I'll remember Brett Favre. But I guess the question still remains. How will you?
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