Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Double The Pleasure, Double The Fun

In honor of the fact that Great Falls is hosting both the boys and girls AA basketball tournaments, I decided to break down each bracket and predict my winners from both tournaments.

Class AA Girls: This should be the most competitive tournament amongst the two. You have both championship finalists from last years tournament returning, Bozeman and Capital. While there's plenty of talent in Butte, Billings West and Missoula Big Sky.

The Favorite: I don't know how you can pick against Butte. They're 19-1 this season, and their only loss was against a very talented, and might I add, defending state champions of Bozeman. In their 19 wins this season, the Lady Bulldogs' average margin of victory was 22 points.

Don't Count Out: There's obviously Bozeman, who are the two-time defending state champs, and some might say, until they get knocked off, they're still the champs. I can't argue with that. However, don't count out Missoula Big Sky, who rocked the Western AA conference with an 11-1 record while Missoula Sentinel was the only conference team to defeat them this year. They're 15-5.

The Dark Horse: I like CMR in this category. When they're on, they might be one of the top 3 teams in the state. The only problem I have with the Lady Rustlers is that they're incredibly inconsistent. If they can find their consistency in the next three games, they'll be a force to reckon with, but they'll have to get past a very tough Big Sky team who has one of the state's best players in Tinkle, and even if they win that game, they'll face the winner of Capital and Bozeman, both of whom met in last season's championship game.


Class AA Boys: I think this tournament is a much more one-sided race. It's a pretty safe bet that Sentinel will face Billings West in the championship game.

The Favorite: I think either West or Sentinel is a good pick here. West finished their season 20-1 while Sentinel was 18-2. Either way, I have seen West up front, and I can tell you, they were the best team I saw in person this year. So, using that as the backbone of my reasoning, I'll say West in this category, but again, both of these two should meet up in the championship game for one great show!

Don't Count Out: This is somewhat of a tough category. Helena has been very solid this season, but they lost five of their last eight down the stretch. And they lost both of their games against Sentinel by an average of 19 points. Capital could be considered a strong candidate considering they are one of two teams who defeated Sentinel this season, but they were swept by Helena in both of their crosstown meetings. Bozeman has enough manpower to make it to the finals and were the only squad to upset West this year, but they're another team who fizzled in the second half of the season.

The Dark Horse: There are pretty much three categories of teams in the boys tournament this year. You have Sentinel and West at the top. Helena, Capital and Bozeman are strong seconds, and then there is everybody else, which pretty much includes Billing Skyview, CMR and Missoula Big Sky. For the Dark Horse, I'll go with Billings Skyview. I know what you're thinking. They were just 10-11 this season, and 3-9 in Eastern AA conference play, but they are coming off a very impressive win on the road against Butte in their one game playoff. Keep in mind that this tournament is 1-and-done, which pretty much means, if you can get hot at the right time, you might be able to run off three straight. The only other team I could fit in here is CMR, but I think they're a year or two from being something truly special, so I'll go with Skyview just for fun. That way, if they continue to upset teams, I can at least say, I told you so!

1 comment:

Cindy Cieluch Photography said...

great blog jake! keep it up....your blog stalker, cindy