NFL's Gambling Party

I love this time of year. The weather is finally clearing up and getting warmer (except for this week, of course). Everything is turning green again. Trees are regrowing their leaves. Flowers are blooming. And if you listen carefully, you can hear the faint sound of a lawnmower off in the distance, or in our case here in Great Falls, a snowblower. Either way, it means Summer is almost here.


But let's not jump ahead too quickly. I love this time of year because for two days this weekend, football will matter again. Of course, I'm talking about the NFL Draft. Now, I had planned on analyzing this year's Draft Class before I realized I'm no Mel Kiper or Todd McShay. Simply, I have neither the time nor the means to study every available player across the board in this year's draft. Unlike myself, team executives, general managers and scouts have spent the past several months researching college players from top to bottom all over the country. By now, scouts can tell you anything and everything you need to know about this year's draft class. Their 40 time, bench press, vertical jump, latteral test, squat, etc., you name it. They've even developed their own IQ tests called the Wonderlick, which can test a player's common knowledge from math and science to everyday life. And that's when I was reminded of why the NFL Draft is just one giant gambling party.

How do you put a price tag on the "potentiality" of talent? How can we assess somebody's future? The answer is, we can't. But every year, people try. There's always at least one player in the draft that stands out amongst their fellow companions. They're compared to the next great "somebody." Whether it be Joe Montana, Reggie White, Jerry Rice, or a Dick Butkus, analysts are constantly searching for parallels of past legends, and using it to hype the future players of the NFL. It happens every year. For example, Arkansas' running back, Darren McFadden is already being compared to the likes of Walter Payton. But it's not fair. Why can't Darren McFadden be compared to Darren McFadden? We put so much pressure by expecting great things from these 21 and 22 year olds who are just exiting college, and receiving their first taste of "real life." Or, are they? Soon after McFadden hears his name called on Saturday, he is likely to be handed a multi-million dollar contract. On top of that, he'll make upwards of $15 million dollars for just signing his name on a dotted line. That's the reality of the NFL Draft. And then analysts wonder why the players they rate so high are just as likely to bust as they are to succeed.

Take a look at the top overall draft picks over the past ten years:


1998: Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts (QB): This is probably the only number one pick who has lived up to his potential. Since joining the league, Manning has started in all 174 games for the Colts including the playoffs. He's already thrown for over 41,000 yards in his career, and has a 306-86 touchdown-interception ratio. in 2007, Manning led the Colts to the franchise's first Super Bowl victory since moving to Indianapolis.


1999: Tim Couch - Cleveland Browns (QB): In five seasons in Cleveland, Couch played in just 62 games, in which he threw 64 touchdown passes along with 67 interceptions. He was never able to lead the Browns to the postseason, and was cut by the team in 2004. Couch has made several comeback attempts which have all failed, and is currently not playing in the NFL.


2000: Courtney Brown - Cleveland Browns (DE): As you can see, Couch didn't have much of an impact in his first year in Cleveland. For the second straight year, the Browns owned the top overall pick in the draft, selecting Penn State's Courtney Brown. After a promising rookie season which included 70 tackles and 4.5 sacks, Brown struggled to stay healthy playing in just 26 games between 2002-2004. Brown signed with Denver as a backup in 2005, and helped the Broncos reach the AFC Championship game. However, in 2006, he tore his ACL, and was released by the team the following year. He's currently listed as a free agent.

2001 Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons (QB): Vick was the most athletic quarterback prospect ever to be drafted. After spending half of his first season on the bench in order to give him time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, Vick started in 15 games for the Falcons in 2002, leading Atlanta to an upset win in Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. In 2003, he suffered a fractured fibula which forced him to miss 11 games. However, in 2004, Vick returned to lead Atlanta to the NFC Championship game before losing to Philadelphia. In 2005, Vick was accused of contracting genital herpes to a woman and was sued for failing to inform her of his disease. In 2006, Vick had his best statistical season in the NFL, throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns, and also rushed for over a 1,000 yards. But before the 2007 season, Vick admitted to hosting and financing an illegal dogfighting operation at his home in Virginia, and was sent to jail. While being free on bail, Vick tested positive for marijuana, a clear violation of the conditions upon his release. In December of last year, he was sentenced to 23 months in prison, where he is currently residing. There is no guarantee that he will be readmitted to the NFL.

2002 - David Carr - Houston Texans (QB): In five seasons with Houston, Carr threw for just 13,500 yards, 59 touchdowns, and 65 interceptions. He was released after the 2006 season when the franchise acquired Matt Schaub from Atlanta. He was immediately picked up by Carolina this past season and served as a backup where he played in 6 games for the injured Jake Delhomme. But after struggling in Carolina, Carr was released by the Panthers. He has currently signed a one year contract with the New York Giants where he'll battle for their backup quarterback position.

2003 - Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals (QB): The Bengals were smart with their top draft pick. They sat Palmer in his rookie year to give him a chance to adapt to the NFL, while veteran quarterback Jon Kitna went on to have a stellar season earning him "Comeback Player of the Year" honors. But in 2004, the Bengals handed the starting job over to Palmer who led Cincinnati to an 8-8 record. A year later, Palmer lived up to his expectations, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading the franchise to their first division title since 1990. However, in the first round of the playoffs, Palmer severely injured his knee on the second play of the game and was forced to spend his entire offseason rehabilitating. In 2006, Palmer started in all 16 games for the Bengals, and passed for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, but his team struggled down the stretch, and missed the postseason after posting just an 8-8 record. This past season, he put up similar numbers (4,131 yards, 26 TD), but also threw a career high 20 interceptions. Cincinnati finished with a 7-9 record, and missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. During the offseason, his primary widereceiver, Chad Johnson, has asked for the franchise to be traded.

2004 - Eli Manning - New York Giants (QB): Originally selected by San Diego and then traded on draft day to New York, Manning spent the first half of his rookie season with the Giants on the bench while being tutored by Kurt Warner. He played in the final nine games, and struggled by finishing with disappointing passer rating of 55.4. In 2005, Manning finished in the league's top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns while leading New York to an NFC East championship. However, he struggled down the stretch, and performed miserably in his first playoff game, passing for just 113 yards and 3 interceptions in their loss to Carolina. Eli's numbers in 2006 stacked up very similar to his '05 season, passing for over 3,200 yards, 24 TD's, but was picked off 18 times as the Giants lost to the Eagles in the Wild Card round of teh playoffs. In 2007, Manning struggled early with injuries on the field, dislocating his shoulder in the first game against Dallas. Meanwhile, the New York fans and ownership began questioning his ability to lead after the Giants started 0-2 to open the season. Manning answered his critics by engineering 11 straight road victories, an NFL record, which included a 17-14 upset win over the previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

2005 - Alex Smith - San Francisco (QB): Smith was drafted number one overall after leading the University of Utah to a perfect season in his senior year. However, his collegiate success did not translate into his NFL career. In his rookie campaign, Smith played in just nine games, throwing for 875 yards, 11 interceptions and just one touchdown. During the offseason, the 49ers hired Norv Turner as their offensive coordinator to help mentor their young quarterback. And it payed off. In his first full season with the club, Smith played in all 16 games, completing nearly 60 percent of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards, 16 touchdowns along with 16 inteceptions. However, during the offseason, Turner was lured away by San Diego to become the Chargers head coach. Smith entered the 2007 season with his third offensive coordinator. He was forced to miss 9 games after separating his shoulder in Week 4 against Seattle. He claimes it affected his accuracy, which could be the reason behind a disappointing season, which Smith completed less than 50 percent of his passes, and threw just 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

2006 - Mario Williams - Houston Texans (DE): Many believed this was a bust from the start considering USC's Heisman trophy winning running back Reggie Bush was passed up by the Texans for Williams. Many fans in Houston even booed the Texans' selection. In his first season, Williams didn't help himself. The NC State product finished with 47 tackles, 4.5 sacks and forced one fumble, which wasn't exactly what Houston had expected from their number one overall pick after giving him a contract reported to be worth more than $60 million dollars, $26 million of that guaranteed. However, in 2007, Williams did show progressive signs of improvement, finishing with 59 tackles, 14 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.

2007 - JaMarcus Russell - Oakland Raiders (QB): Praised for his arm strength and size, many analysts predicted Russell to have a brilliant career in the NFL. After being drafted number one overall by the Raiders, Russell struggled to work out a contract with the franchise. He held out through training camp and even through the first week of the season before finally reaching a deal with Oakland in September worth $68 million dollars that included $31.5 million in guarantees. On December 2 of last year, Russell made his first professional appearance coming off the bench for Josh McCown, playing in two series where he completed 4 of his 7 pass attempts for 56 yards. Russell made his first career start in the team's final game of the season. The former LSU quarterback finished his rookie campaign with 373 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has already been named as the Raiders' starting quarterback for this upcoming season.

Of course, I could go on. Do I dare mention Ryan Leaf? But there are several players that have surprised us over the years. Take Tom Brady, for example. Many, including myself, believe he's one of the best quarterbacks to have ever played the game. He's already won three Super Bowls, and was 3 points away from another this past year as well as a perfect season. No other quarterback in the history of the game has had as much success as Brady has been able to achieve at his age. Did I mention he was selected in the sixth round by the Patriots and was the 199th overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft? He's already being compared to Joe Montana. And speaking of Montana, after graduating from Notre Dame, he had to wait until the 3rd round to hear his name called. Now looking back, what team wouldn't have traded away all of their picks that year for Montana? He went on to win four Super Bowl titles with San Francisco and was named as the game's MVP in three of them. He also won two individual NFL MVP trophies.

So I ask you again, how can you put a price tag on the potentiality of talent? I realize that there must be some kind of draft process which provides an order in which teams are assigned based upon their previous season's record. And you'll always have the "prospects," which show great promise in becoming the next star in the NFL. But what happens when they don't? I guess the NFL Draft really is just a gamble after all!

A Masters-Piece!

You can't give enough credit to Tiger Woods and what he's done for the game of golf. He's transformed a sport which has been nearly unwatchable for most of us across the country into a form of entertainment that cannot be ignored. In fact, there hasn't been another athlete in our era that has done as much as Tiger has for any sport. He's become so dominant that Vegas has narrowed the line down to just two wagers: you can take Tiger, or the Field. Not Garcia. Not Singh. Not even Mickelson. And what's even more unbelievable is that most are willing to bet on Tiger alone rather than his 50 competitors, which is why Woods is now bigger than the game itself, and you're either for Tiger, or you're against him.

But this past weekend, the inevitable happened. Tiger was outmatched.

Woods began the Masters with a 72 shot performance in his first round. Not bad. But not great, at least in Tiger's standards. He followed that with a 71 in Round 2 before catching fire in the third round of 18, shooting a 68, and bumping him from 13th all the way up to 5th in the standings, and once again, reminding us why he is the world's best golfer. But he wasn't. Fate had taken over.

In 2006, a 26 year old man from South Africa named Trevor Immelman was beginning to make a name for himself in the PGA. In June of '06, Immelman won his first Tour event at the Western Open before withdrawing from the Open Championship to be with his wife and their first born child. However, Immelman finished 2006 ranked in the top ten in the world, and was named Rookie of the Year.

But in 2007, all of that became subordinate. In December, Immelman was forced to withdraw from the South African Airways Open due to severe discomfort surrounding his ribcage area, making it difficult for him to breathe. A week before Christmas, he was forced to have surgery where doctors discovered a lesion roughly the size of a golf ball on his diaphragm. After further testing, doctors diagnosed the lesion as a calcified fibrosis tumor, which was discovered to be benign.

In 2008, Immelman sat out the first 8 weeks of the PGA season, as he spent time recovering from his surgery. But by the end of January, Immelman found himself back on the greens, where he competed in his first tournament since being diagnosed with the tumor. After shooting a 68 on the first day of the FBR Open, he would struggle on his next 18 holes, finishing the round with a 73, forcing him to miss the cut. Two weeks later, he performed even worse at the Northern Trust Open in California, shooting a 72 in his first round, and followed with a 75 in the second leaving some to doubt if the South African was not only physically, but also mentally ready to return to the Tour. After finishing 17th at the WGC's Accenture Match, Immelman struggled again at the Honda Classic, failing to make another cut. He spent the next month competing in three more tournaments, shooting just one round under 70, while placing no higher than 40th. Then a week before one of golf's most prestigious events, The Masters, Immelman struggled once again at the Shell Houston Open, failing to make the cut for the fourth time of the '08 season while heading into the first major of the year.

Meanwhile, Tiger Woods entered Augusta on fire, beginning the season on a winning streak of five consecutive PGA Tour victories. Talks of a Grand Slam began to heat up again. Even Tiger himself was willing to admit that it was a possibility. But nobody could have expected what was about to happen next.

Trevor Immelman would have been happy by just making the cut after Friday in Augusta. But instead, he would thrust himself into the spotlight. He shot a 68 in the first round, and followed that with an encore performance in the second, while heading into the final 36 holes at -8 under with a one shot lead. But the focus remained on Woods. Tiger birdied just four holes through his first two rounds, and headed into the weekend 7 shots behind the South African. But instead of being counted out, most were waiting for Tiger to make his move. And on Saturday, he did. Woods shot his best round of the tournament, a 68, moving him up 8 spots in the standings. But Immelman wouldn't back down. He finished his third round with four birdies en route to a 69 shot performance, and held a 2 shot lead heading into the tournament's final round, six shots ahead of Tiger.

But many were waiting for Immelman to fold under the pressure. The 28 year old had never held this big of lead in any major tournament. And his skeptics were right. Immelman bogeyed two of his first nine holes dropping him to -10 under. But Tiger continued to play average, shooting a 36 through the front nine. Then on the 16th, Immelman double-bogeyed, allowing Tiger to have a shot. But Woods was dealing with his own struggles. Tiger bogeyed twice on the back nine, and needed an eagle to pull himself back into the race. However, there would be no magic for Woods this time at Augusta. Immelman would finish the final two holes by saving par on both to win just his second PGA tournament since joining the Tour two years ago. And just 4 months removed from being diagnosed with a tumor on his diaphragm, Immelman won his first major of his career with his wife and one year old son, Jacob, there to greet him.

Whether you're for Tiger, or you're against him, this year's Masters wasn't about Woods. It was about hope and inspiration. Which is why the 2008 Masters was truly, a Masterpiece!

Remember the Alamo

Wow! What a way to finish the NCAA basketball season! I must admit, I was skeptical at first that all four of the number one seeds reached the Final Four. I believe what makes the NCAA tournament great is the upsets and Cinderellas. While there were upsets, the only true Cinderella was Davidson, who couldn't quite take down Kansas in the Elite 8, which set up the Final Four with all four number one seeds for the first time in tournament history.

Each one of the Final Four games were exciting, but they weren't really close. UCLA kept it close against Memphis through the 1st half before running out of gas in the 2nd. They obviously aren't built or conditioned to run up and down the floor for 40 minutes. In the second game, Kansas jumped out on North Carolina by building a 28 point lead at one point in the 1st half before almost blowing it in the 2nd. The Jayhawks were able to fend off the Tar Heels down the stretch as both games ended in double digit margins.

Then came the championship. There wasn't much to dislike about any one of the teams. Kansas is a powerhouse, but they hadn't won a national title in 20 years, while Memphis hadn't been to a national championship game in 35 years. Both teams were loaded with talent and 1st round NBA draft potential, while both coaches had already achieved more than most can only dream of.

And the game didn't disappoint. In fact, the largest lead was 9 points, which was held by Memphis with 2:12 to go in regulation. Then it finally happened. The Tigers simply forgot how to shoot free throws. It really wasn't anything new. Memphis was one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country entering the tournament averaging below 60 percent as a team from the line. However, they turned it up a notch in the tourney by shooting over 70 percent. Even their head coach, John Calipari guaranteed they'd make their free throws when it counted. But Calipari was wrong. The Tigers missed three of their final four down the stretch letting their 9 point lead evaporate as quickly as boiling water turns to gas when it's exposed to freezing temperatures. With 10 seconds left, down by 3, Kansas had to travel the full length of the court without a timeout. All Memphis needed to do was foul, but instead, they did what all of us at home were doing. They watched. Falling backwards, Mario Chalmers not only made the 3 point shot, but he hit nothing but net. That's when I knew Kansas would win it.

Of course, the Jayhawks did go on to earn their third national championship in school history, a 75-68 overtime victory that will have most of us Remembering the Alamo for some time to come.