But let's not jump ahead too quickly. I love this time of year because for two days this weekend, football will matter again. Of course, I'm talking about the NFL Draft. Now, I had planned on analyzing this year's Draft Class before I realized I'm no Mel Kiper or Todd McShay. Simply, I have neither the time nor the means to study every available player across the board in this year's draft. Unlike myself, team executives, general managers and scouts have spent the past several months researching college players from top to bottom all over the country. By now, scouts can tell you anything and everything you need to know about this year's draft class. Their 40 time, bench press, vertical jump, latteral test, squat, etc., you name it. They've even developed their own IQ tests called the Wonderlick, which can test a player's common knowledge from math and science to everyday life. And that's when I was reminded of why the NFL Draft is just one giant gambling party.
How do you put a price tag on the "potentiality" of talent? How can we assess somebody's future? The answer is, we can't. But every year, people try. There's always at least one player in the draft that stands out amongst their fellow companions. They're compared to the next great "somebody." Whether it be Joe Montana, Reggie White, Jerry Rice, or a Dick Butkus, analysts are constantly searching for parallels of past legends, and using it to hype the future players of the NFL. It happens every year. For example, Arkansas' running back, Darren McFadden is already being compared to the likes of Walter Payton. But it's not fair. Why can't Darren McFadden be compared to Darren McFadden? We put so much pressure by expecting great things from these 21 and 22 year olds who are just exiting college, and receiving their first taste of "real life." Or, are they? Soon after McFadden hears his name called on Saturday, he is likely to be handed a multi-million dollar contract. On top of that, he'll make upwards of $15 million dollars for just signing his name on a dotted line. That's the reality of the NFL Draft. And then analysts wonder why the players they rate so high are just as likely to bust as they are to succeed.
Take a look at the top overall draft picks over the past ten years:
1998: Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts (QB): This is probably the only number one pick who has lived up to his potential. Since joining the league, Manning has started in all 174 games for the Colts including the playoffs. He's already thrown for over 41,000 yards in his career, and has a 306-86 touchdown-interception ratio. in 2007, Manning led the Colts to the franchise's first Super Bowl victory since moving to Indianapolis.
1999: Tim Couch - Cleveland Browns (QB): In five seasons in Cleveland, Couch played in just 62 games, in which he threw 64 touchdown passes along with 67 interceptions. He was never able to lead the Browns to the postseason, and was cut by the team in 2004. Couch has made several comeback attempts which have all failed, and is currently not playing in the NFL.
2000: Courtney Brown - Cleveland Browns (DE): As you can see, Couch didn't have much of an impact in his first year in Cleveland. For the second straight year, the Browns owned the top overall pick in the draft, selecting Penn State's Courtney Brown. After a promising rookie season which included 70 tackles and 4.5 sacks, Brown struggled to stay healthy playing in just 26 games between 2002-2004. Brown signed with Denver as a backup in 2005, and helped the Broncos reach the AFC Championship game. However, in 2006, he tore his ACL, and was released by the team the following year. He's currently listed as a free agent.
2001 Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons (QB): Vick was the most athletic quarterback prospect ever to be drafted. After spending half of his first season on the bench in order to give him time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, Vick started in 15 games for the Falcons in 2002, leading Atlanta to an upset win in Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. In 2003, he suffered a fractured fibula which forced him to miss 11 games. However, in 2004, Vick returned to lead Atlanta to the NFC Championship game before losing to Philadelphia. In 2005, Vick was accused of contracting genital herpes to a woman and was sued for failing to inform her of his disease. In 2006, Vick had his best statistical season in the NFL, throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns, and also rushed for over a 1,000 yards. But before the 2007 season, Vick admitted to hosting and financing an illegal dogfighting operation at his home in Virginia, and was sent to jail. While being free on bail, Vick tested positive for marijuana, a clear violation of the conditions upon his release. In December of last year, he was sentenced to 23 months in prison, where he is currently residing. There is no guarantee that he will be readmitted to the NFL.
2002 - David Carr - Houston Texans (QB): In five seasons with Houston, Carr threw for just 13,500 yards, 59 touchdowns, and 65 interceptions. He was released after the 2006 season when the franchise acquired Matt Schaub from Atlanta. He was immediately picked up by Carolina this past season and served as a backup where he played in 6 games for the injured Jake Delhomme. But after struggling in Carolina, Carr was released by the Panthers. He has currently signed a one year contract with the New York Giants where he'll battle for their backup quarterback position.
2003 - Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals (QB): The Bengals were smart with their top draft pick. They sat Palmer in his rookie year to give him a chance to adapt to the NFL, while veteran quarterback Jon Kitna went on to have a stellar season earning him "Comeback Player of the Year" honors. But in 2004, the Bengals handed the starting job over to Palmer who led Cincinnati to an 8-8 record. A year later, Palmer lived up to his expectations, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns while leading the franchise to their first division title since 1990. However, in the first round of the playoffs, Palmer severely injured his knee on the second play of the game and was forced to spend his entire offseason rehabilitating. In 2006, Palmer started in all 16 games for the Bengals, and passed for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, but his team struggled down the stretch, and missed the postseason after posting just an 8-8 record. This past season, he put up similar numbers (4,131 yards, 26 TD), but also threw a career high 20 interceptions. Cincinnati finished with a 7-9 record, and missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. During the offseason, his primary widereceiver, Chad Johnson, has asked for the franchise to be traded.
2004 - Eli Manning - New York Giants (QB): Originally selected by San Diego and then traded on draft day to New York, Manning spent the first half of his rookie season with the Giants on the bench while being tutored by Kurt Warner. He played in the final nine games, and struggled by finishing with disappointing passer rating of 55.4. In 2005, Manning finished in the league's top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns while leading New York to an NFC East championship. However, he struggled down the stretch, and performed miserably in his first playoff game, passing for just 113 yards and 3 interceptions in their loss to Carolina. Eli's numbers in 2006 stacked up very similar to his '05 season, passing for over 3,200 yards, 24 TD's, but was picked off 18 times as the Giants lost to the Eagles in the Wild Card round of teh playoffs. In 2007, Manning struggled early with injuries on the field, dislocating his shoulder in the first game against Dallas. Meanwhile, the New York fans and ownership began questioning his ability to lead after the Giants started 0-2 to open the season. Manning answered his critics by engineering 11 straight road victories, an NFL record, which included a 17-14 upset win over the previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.
2005 - Alex Smith - San Francisco (QB): Smith was drafted number one overall after leading the University of Utah to a perfect season in his senior year. However, his collegiate success did not translate into his NFL career. In his rookie campaign, Smith played in just nine games, throwing for 875 yards, 11 interceptions and just one touchdown. During the offseason, the 49ers hired Norv Turner as their offensive coordinator to help mentor their young quarterback. And it payed off. In his first full season with the club, Smith played in all 16 games, completing nearly 60 percent of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards, 16 touchdowns along with 16 inteceptions. However, during the offseason, Turner was lured away by San Diego to become the Chargers head coach. Smith entered the 2007 season with his third offensive coordinator. He was forced to miss 9 games after separating his shoulder in Week 4 against Seattle. He claimes it affected his accuracy, which could be the reason behind a disappointing season, which Smith completed less than 50 percent of his passes, and threw just 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
2006 - Mario Williams - Houston Texans (DE): Many believed this was a bust from the start considering USC's Heisman trophy winning running back Reggie Bush was passed up by the Texans for Williams. Many fans in Houston even booed the Texans' selection. In his first season, Williams didn't help himself. The NC State product finished with 47 tackles, 4.5 sacks and forced one fumble, which wasn't exactly what Houston had expected from their number one overall pick after giving him a contract reported to be worth more than $60 million dollars, $26 million of that guaranteed. However, in 2007, Williams did show progressive signs of improvement, finishing with 59 tackles, 14 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
2007 - JaMarcus Russell - Oakland Raiders (QB): Praised for his arm strength and size, many analysts predicted Russell to have a brilliant career in the NFL. After being drafted number one overall by the Raiders, Russell struggled to work out a contract with the franchise. He held out through training camp and even through the first week of the season before finally reaching a deal with Oakland in September worth $68 million dollars that included $31.5 million in guarantees. On December 2 of last year, Russell made his first professional appearance coming off the bench for Josh McCown, playing in two series where he completed 4 of his 7 pass attempts for 56 yards. Russell made his first career start in the team's final game of the season. The former LSU quarterback finished his rookie campaign with 373 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has already been named as the Raiders' starting quarterback for this upcoming season.
Of course, I could go on. Do I dare mention Ryan Leaf? But there are several players that have surprised us over the years. Take Tom Brady, for example. Many, including myself, believe he's one of the best quarterbacks to have ever played the game. He's already won three Super Bowls, and was 3 points away from another this past year as well as a perfect season. No other quarterback in the history of the game has had as much success as Brady has been able to achieve at his age. Did I mention he was selected in the sixth round by the Patriots and was the 199th overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft? He's already being compared to Joe Montana. And speaking of Montana, after graduating from Notre Dame, he had to wait until the 3rd round to hear his name called. Now looking back, what team wouldn't have traded away all of their picks that year for Montana? He went on to win four Super Bowl titles with San Francisco and was named as the game's MVP in three of them. He also won two individual NFL MVP trophies.
So I ask you again, how can you put a price tag on the potentiality of talent? I realize that there must be some kind of draft process which provides an order in which teams are assigned based upon their previous season's record. And you'll always have the "prospects," which show great promise in becoming the next star in the NFL. But what happens when they don't? I guess the NFL Draft really is just a gamble after all!
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